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Update on UBS auction 69


bobh
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Here is a link to the prices realized (PDF file). Some of the better Russian lots went for more than 10 times the estimate ( ;) ):

 

Lot #3234: Peter I. 1699-1725. Rubel 1723, Moskau

Estimate: CHF 400

PR: CHF 10'000.- + 15% buyer's fee + VAT ;)

 

Lot #3237: Katharina I. 1725-1727. Rubel 1725, St. Petersburg.

Estimate: CHF 250

PR: CHF 2'200.- + 15% buyer's fee + VAT

 

Lot #3273: Nikolaus I. 1825-1855. Rubel 1844, St. Petersburg. 20,76 g. Uzd. 1622. Stains. UNC, proof

Estimate: CHF 500

PR: CHF 6'000.- + 15% buyer's fee + VAT

 

Two platinum 3 rouble coins went for CHF 1700 each (estimate was only CHF 850).

Lot #3253, which was two Catherine II roubles discussed by us in another thread (RW Julian asked about the MM on the second coin), sold for CHF 400.

Lot #3254, a 1790-EM pyatak which was misadvertised as "10 kopeks", sold for CHF 160 ... IMHO this was a harshly cleaned coin with AU details for which I wouldn't pay more than $20. ;)

 

Most of the "problem" lots we discussed didn't sell, e.g. the silver-plated bronze Romanov rouble and lots 3281 and 3282; however, lot 3283 found a sucker for CHF 400! :ninja:

Also, the overly optimistic estimate of CHF 350 kept this Soviet 1924 rouble (lot #3283) from selling.

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Why am I not surprised ? ;)

 

You know what I think?

 

2007 is last year of this high-flying-more-than-expected-russian-coin market. I believe the spring of 2008 will bring the market down. Just remember the prediction and the Oldman.

 

Always yours,

Should we sell our collections now and buy them back in a couple of years??? :ninja: If we do, then all coins would be in Russia then -- prices for those outside of Russia would then be much higher!

 

I think I shall hold on to what I have for now -- who knows if it would ever be possible to even find such coins five years from now, much less pay for them (unless Russian laws change permitting export of rare coins)?

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If memory serves correctly, it was Nikita Krushchev who said that something would happen about the time that “pigs learned to fly.” That may be the case here as well!

 

RWJ

 

Weekend, time to relax... ;)

 

Here is some more info about Nikita Krushchev and "flying pigs".

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

анекдот:

 

 

Хрущев посетил свиноферму. Редакция "Правды" обсуждает текст подписи под

фотоснимком, который необходимо поместить на первой странице. Отвергаются

варианты "Товарищ Хрущев среди свиней" и "Свиньи вокруг товарища Хрущева".

Окончательный вариант подписи: "Третий слева - товарищ Хрущев". :ninja:

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RosBusinessConsulting News, May 2005:

 

Свиньи будут летать первым классом.

 

Не удивляйтесь, если в салоне самолета американской авиакомпании вы вдруг обнаружите неподалеку от себя вольготно расположившуюся на сиденье свинью, обезьяну, кошку или даже лошадь. Это совсем даже не галлюциногенное действие спиртного, принятого для унятия страха - по вышедшей недавно в США директиве, животные имеют полное право летать самолетами. Причем только первым классом, что никак нельзя назвать дискриминацией. ;)

 

For disbelievers here is a link: http://top.rbc.ru/news/funs/arc.shtml?2003/05/23

 

So pigs really can fly! ;)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The most known sayings by Nikita Krushchev:

 

1. Политики везде одинаковы: они обещают построить мост там, где и реки - то нет.

 

2. Награды получать приятно. Они украшают человека.

 

3. Обождите, мы вам еще покажем кузькину мать!

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Happy weekend everyone! ;)

 

WCO

pig_160.jpg

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[some snipped...]

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RosBusinessConsulting News, May 2005:

 

Свиньи будут летать первым классом.

 

Не удивляйтесь, если в салоне самолета американской авиакомпании вы вдруг обнаружите неподалеку от себя вольготно расположившуюся на сиденье свинью, обезьяну, кошку или даже лошадь. Это совсем даже не галлюциногенное действие спиртного, принятого для унятия страха - по вышедшей недавно в США директиве, животные имеют полное право летать самолетами. Причем только первым классом, что никак нельзя назвать дискриминацией. :ninja:

 

For disbelievers here is a link: http://top.rbc.ru/news/funs/arc.shtml?2003/05/23

 

So pigs really can fly! ;)

Да, летают, но знаешь, почему??

По-этому, чтобы Бушу не нужно было бы летать одинёшенек. ;)

 

Happy weekend everyone! ;)

 

WCO

Thanks -- Тебе то-же самое! ;)

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Thank you, bobh!

 

Getting serious I think we are experiencing next upward movement of prices of Russian coins. For quality and rare coins to infinity and beyond! :ninja:

 

WCO

 

According to ALL free market rules , the prices must, first, freeze and ,then, go down. Maybe, not dramatically, but definetely by at least 20-30%. It is called market correction.

 

We've observed such examples in real estate, oil prices, currency fluctation, etc.

 

In numismatics, it would be very helpful to recall where were Morgan dollars 25 years ago, how high were Dutch and Swiss coins flying some 15-20 years, how German coins suddenly lost ground about 3-5 years ago, etc.. Where are all they now? In a deep .....

 

Have a nice weekend , everyone !

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It is called market correction.

 

 

I agree with you, Oldman. :ninja:

 

Of course, I have been predicting a big drop in Russian coin prices since at least 5 years ago, so my track record in making such forecasts has not been very good. Maybe I need a new crystal ball. ;)

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Everyone who think prices will drop, can sell their collections now. I am buying. :ninja:

 

Applying market rules to Russian coinage market? Then consider this. According to the MARKET law of "Demand and Supply" prices will go higher. Demand for Russian coins is enormous and supply is drying up. Hundreds of new collectors of Russian coins every day in Russia and around the world. Relatively the same scarce US coins worth 2-50 times the price so Russian coins are still underestimated. Russian coins once back to Russia will never become available on European/American markets. Booming economy in Russia based on natural resources (oil), predicted prices of gas and oil to rise for the next decades. Lots of money and no investment alternatives in Russia plus common for Russians thinking about investments in hard assets (gold) "for a rainy day". Weakening dollar and increasing prices of gold (platinum/palladium/silver) will drive prices of all coins higher and especially Russian.

 

Interestingly enough, the worsening world economy will drive the prices of coins higher as "safe harbor" for investors. Bettering world economy will move prices of coins higher too, since there will be more money to spend.

 

All rare, very high grade, appealing Russian coins have nowhere to go but higher. Much higher.... we'll see in a few years... when oil will be over $100 and gold over $1000/oz.

 

WCO

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Demand for Russian coins is enormous and supply is drying up. Hundreds of new collectors of Russian coins every day in Russia and around the world. Relatively the same scarce US coins worth 2-50 times the price so Russian coins are still underestimated. Russian coins once back to Russia will never become available on European/American markets.

 

WCO

 

 

And this is the other side of the coin.

 

Russian coins are indeed very underpriced when compared to US coins of similar quality and rarity. (However, the same could also be said for virtually every other country in the world, but let's leave that alone for now).

 

Russia is prospering, has a rich numismatic tradition and a numismatic market whose price growth was delayed by more than 70 years of Communism, so it has a lot of catching up to do.

 

Over the long term, WCO is probably right and the Russian coin market is likely still in its infancy.

 

But no market goes up in a straight line forever. The market for Russian coins has been so hot that it eventually must take a breather and cool off for a while.

 

I hope that there will one day be a free, legal export of old coins from Russia, but the consensus seems to be that this will not happen anytime soon. ;)

 

That makes the idea of parting with a collection much more difficult, because it means the coins, once gone, are gone permanently. :ninja:

 

The market for Russian coins has changed a lot over the years. It used to be a quiet, collector-controlled market and "investment" in Russian coins was almost unknown. But today, it seems like the "investment" tail is wagging the Russian numismatic dog. Yes, hot investment money is rushing into the market, but it can just as quickly leave again, as the 1980 market for US coins demonstrated.

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I'm not too sure about coin prices cooling anytime soon. Even modern Russian commemorative coins in precious metals other than silver is virtually unobtainable and often if you come across them, they go at mad prices, way over bullion value. For that, even 5oz silver coins are monsterously difficult to obtain, even on ebay.de - well I just go there and go "window shopping" these days.

 

I am quite willing to bet that over the years, export laws must be relaxed when Russia joins WTO, which is probably the end of this year although I don't think that will have much impact on numismatics anytime soon.

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But no market goes up in a straight line forever. The market for Russian coins has been so hot that it eventually must take a breather and cool off for a while.

 

The market for Russian coins has changed a lot over the years. It used to be a quiet, collector-controlled market and "investment" in Russian coins was almost unknown. But today, it seems like the "investment" tail is wagging the Russian numismatic dog. Yes, hot investment money is rushing into the market, but it can just as quickly leave again, as the 1980 market for US coins demonstrated.

 

True. The investors will dump their holdings once they see that they make less then the targeted margin or they find more attractive opportunities.

 

WCO, I'm selling. Prepare about $750,000.00 in cash. When ready, let me know :ninja:

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True. The investors will dump their holdings once they see that they make less then the targeted margin or they find more attractive opportunities.

 

WCO, I'm selling. Prepare about $750,000.00 in cash. When ready, let me know :ninja:

 

I am ready and interested. Send a list of key positions via personal message if you are serious. For $750K it has got to be something spectacular even with today's prices :-)

 

I also think that most of us are true collectors, and will rather benefit from any market drop. I, for instance, could really use a good collapse right now -- it would allow me to afford a Gedlinger rouble, crow tail in AU condition, Anna with the chain in MS, 1766 big head rouble, and many more coins on the list of the impossibles. I do not care whether my coins go up in price, it is not an investment because I have no plans of selling while alive.

 

I believe that rare and choice coins will not drop in price in any case -- there is absolutely no reason for such drop that I see.

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Didn't I say WCO ? ;)

 

Yes you did. I just did not think that someone who really want to sell, would choose to sell to a dealer over selling to a collector. Thus, either you two have some special relationship... ;) or you do not really want to sell. Which one is it? :ninja:

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... WCO, I'm selling. Prepare about $750,000.00 in cash. When ready, let me know :ninja:

 

Oldman,

 

I am always ready! ;)

 

If you are serious to sell your holdings pls. via personal messages provide your contact info and list of key coins (with your "ask" prices), and short description of the rest of your holdings.

 

WCO

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Oldman,

 

I am always rady! :ninja:

 

If you are serious to sell your holdings pls. via personal messages provide your contact info and list of key coins (with your "ask" prices), and short description of the rest of your holdings.

 

WCO

 

WCO,

thanks a lot. I'll consider this opportunity and keep you posted.

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