Crazy

[Timofei]

You may know already new records set during the Ekaterina (Monety I Medali) auction #39. I participated today in this event. It seems that the high prices are paid only be new fresh rich 'numismatists' who happen to dream about investing. I think the time for collectors is over at Ekaterina auctions

 

All top and record prices for coins from Peter1 to Peter3 (including cipher Peter3 rouble) were paid by one guy who was sitting guarded by bodigards. He is completely new in the field, the most experienced Moscow dealers and collectors does not know him and we all were just shocked seing this person paying double and triple price for the coins which usually are hardly sold even at a third of what he paid.

 

For example, he purchased 1741 rouble (on the picture) at 31000 USD. While it is big trouble to sell this coin in far better condition at 15000-18000. If I only knew such 'customer'

 

It was also strange to see a lady who does not (I am sure 100%) know a thing in Russian numismatics but was stubborn to buy one rouble of each tzar (paying e.g. 1450+5% for mediocre 1823 rouble ). Such coin is hard to sell in top condition even at 1100 USD, but the lady just overpaid 40% for an XF coin.

 

So I think the market now is becoming clearly divided. One segment is for unexperienced, the other - for conosseurs. It is a pity to see in Ekaterina auction that many truly rare and excelent coin were mixed with quite trash and the 'customers' were willing to pay too much for all of them without consideration of rarity or quality.

 

IMHO.

[gxseries]

Timofei, here is a question that I most definately like to ask you, especially because you are in Russia and know the current situation very well.

 

If you noticed on ebay, there are many strong Russian buyers on the net, willing to pay top quality prices on Russian coins.

 

The question is: is the Russian market continually going to raise at a very unsteady rate since the market is started to be filled with dreamy investors OR

The price of Russian coins are still too undervalued at the moment and still does deserve to raise much higher.

 

To most of us, higher prices do mean terrible thing for us (except sellers) since it makes collecting Russian coins very difficult, although I do personally respect the idea of returning items back to the origins.

[Timofei]

Hello, qx,

 

The prices may go up, as well as down, like they say on investment brochures. If I was a profet I would tell

 

Honestly, I think that it is a steady growth. All antiquities become more and more expensive, however I am sure nowdays a numismatist must not judge the price level on the auctions like Ekaterina and Gorny&Mosch. Indeed I also buy on those auctions, BUT always there are one-time shoppers who come to buy and forget about numismatics. Today at the auction in Moscow some stupid idiot paid 650 USD for 10 roubles 1904 in XF condition. I think NGC would not even accepted that coin for grading as MS.

 

So I do not believe jumping prices since a Russian numismatist can get 80% of the lots sold in today's auction in local numismatic club for a third or half of the auction price. Rarities or unique condition coins are expensive and always were, so 20-30 % growth in the past 1-2-3 years is normal I think.

[WCO]

You may know already new records set during the Ekaterina (Monety I Medali) auction #39. I participated today in this event. It seems that the high prices are paid only be new fresh rich 'numismatists' who happen to dream about investing. I think the time for collectors is over at Ekaterina auctions

 

All top and record prices for coins from Peter1 to Peter3 (including cipher Peter3 rouble) were paid by one guy who was sitting guarded by bodigards. He is completely new in the field, the most experienced Moscow dealers and collectors does not know him and we all were just shocked seing this person paying double and triple price for the coins which usually are hardly sold even at a third of what he paid.

 

For example, he purchased 1741 rouble (on the picture) at 31000 USD. While it is big trouble to sell this coin in far better condition at 15000-18000. If I only knew such 'customer'

 

It was also strange to see a lady who does not (I am sure 100%) know a thing in Russian numismatics but was stubborn to buy one rouble of each tzar (paying e.g. 1450+5% for mediocre 1823 rouble ). Such coin is hard to sell in top condition even at 1100 USD, but the lady just overpaid 40% for an XF coin.

 

So I think the market now is becoming clearly divided. One segment is for unexperienced, the other - for conosseurs. It is a pity to see in Ekaterina auction that many truly rare and excelent coin were mixed with quite trash and the 'customers' were willing to pay too much for all of them without consideration of rarity or quality.

 

IMHO.

 

Good day everyone.

 

I heard many times stories like this: "there were many unfamiliar with coin collecting and pricing but reach people who overpaid 2, 3, 5, etc. times the price of a coin on recent auction". People who are saying this usually forget that there exist an underbidder for each item, so not just highest bidder is "insane" but his opponent was just 5-10% less "insane", etc. This is called "market" and such a price is "market price". Every item worth exactly what people are ready to pay for it. Imagine next similar sale and there will be 10 people bidding, each surrounded with his own bodyguards. Where the price will be then? The better are things in Russia and more reach people are coming to the hobby the higher will be the prices for Russian coins. For now I do not see even where the prices can stop. Similar to Russian coins (in terms of quality and population) US coins worth many times more, so I believe prices may go much higher. They can fall too if something bad happens in Russia (like default 1990's) or worldwide (like sudden and large drop of prices on gold).

 

WCO

[bobh]

The question is: is the Russian market continually going to raise at a very unsteady rate since the market is started to be filled with dreamy investors OR

The price of Russian coins are still too undervalued at the moment and still does deserve to raise much higher.

Hello gxseries,

 

I agree with Timofei that one shouldn't judge the market by crass behavior on the part of a few bidders who have little knowledge and very deep pockets. This phenomenon is not limited to the Russian market, as you can see by reading here:

 

Discussion on the RCC newsgroup about slabbed modern USA coins

 

Personally, I believe that, in spite of the recent and welcome opening of Russia to world markets, there is still some distortion in supply and demand. People in Russia pay much more for Russian coins (presumably for coins in general) than people do in Europe or the USA. eBay and other online auctions, of course, is the great leveller. But it is apparently still illegal to export any Russian coins made before 1945 or thereabouts to other countries!

 

I am a great believer in the natural laws of supply and demand. Eventually, many more people in Russia will hopefully have broad-band internet access and can use eBay, etc. Also, transportation and mobility will hopefully increase as well, so that more Russians will be able to buy coins in cheaper international markets, and people from other countries will hopefully have better access to Russian markets, too. That means that, although today there are a few people who can and will pay ridiculous prices for anything, tomorrow maybe they will realize that they can get the same thing for less money. On the other hand, the market as a whole will experience somewhat rising prices so that the two tendencies will meet somewhere in the middle.

 

Of course, all of this is just IMXO (... and after the 2nd Margarita ... )

[Timofei]

Good day everyone.

 

I heard many times stories like this: "there were many unfamiliar with coin collecting and pricing but reach people who overpaid 2, 3, 5, etc. times the price of a coin on recent auction". People who are saying this usually forget that there exist an underbidder for each item, so not just highest bidder is "insane" but his opponent was just 5-10% less "insane", etc.

 

I do not like to hear stories, I prefer witness them. As far as todays auction - the record biddings usually were between 2 (very rarely 3) rich newcomers, bidding and overbidding each other while the other hall was just watching the show.

 

An opposite example: the special narrow portrait poltina: lot #84 (see picture). Originally this coin was purchased by well-known decent Moscow dealer for 5000 US about year or so ago. He offered this item on the market at 7000 which many collectors considered but did not decide to buy, bargained etc. Then he turned it to the auction house. Today it was exactly 3 bids - started at 7000, another collector raised to 7500 and the third one put 8000. That was the end of the story. 3 collectors bidded at one of the most beautiful and quite rare Anna poltina. No investors or idiots.

Now lot #72 - PERT variety of 1728 Rouble - VG condition with awfull laminations looking like holes - crazy bidding and the item sold at 2700 USD. O! You should have seen lot #323, 5 roubles 1862 - from 550 it went to 1600+5-10% (!!). This was a gem coin but, WCO, you would have big trouble selling it in Moscow at even 850-900 USD, just for the fact that you would not find such market or such customer. I have gem uncirculated 1741 rouble and I cannot sell it at 18000. Come on rich guys - where are you all

 

It is a shame that Ekaterina auction feel this vibe of selling high to unexperienced customers. Couple of years ago you would not even find regular gold 5 roubles in their catalogs. Now it is crowded with these lots. I think now auction house is aiming at this specific category of customers. The real market for regular coins is far from it. The market for truly rare coins does not exist at all.

 

By the way, it is a mistery to me: each MiM auction usually has such rich bidder or couple of those. But I never see those people to come back to another Russian auction as far as I can remember them for at least past 2-3 years. What is the point of buying 2-10 coins and stop there....

[WCO]

... 5 roubles 1862 - from 550 it went to 1600+5-10% (!!). This was a gem coin but, WCO, you would have big trouble selling it in Moscow at even 850-900 USD, just for the fact that you would not find such market or such customer...

 

 

Timofei, this market is NOT what goes in "Ulanbator" or "Taganka". This what goes by private negotiations. Really rare coins don't like many eyes and many ears.

 

 

I recently sold this

 

http://i01.expertcollector.com/uploads/0003000790_1.jpg

 

to one client in Russia. Guess what it went for? The client was and is extremely happy, and the coin is everything you can imagine in terms of eye appeal and quality. Well, it's not that far away when people in Russia (and especially dealers on the first place) understand that quality worth money and CONDITIONAL rarities are rarities too and may have considerable premium 2, 3, 5 or even 100 times the value of similar coin in XF.

 

 

... It is a shame that Ekaterina auction feel this vibe of selling high to unexperienced customers. Couple of years ago you would not even find regular gold 5 roubles in their catalogs. Now it is crowded with these lots. I think now auction house is aiming at this specific category of customers. The real market for regular coins is far from it. The market for truly rare coins does not exist at all.

 

By the way, it is a mistery to me: each MiM auction usually has such rich bidder or couple of those. But I never see those people to come back to another Russian auction as far as I can remember them for at least past 2-3 years. What is the point of buying 2-10 coins and stop there....

 

Well, there is no shame for major auctions to attract many and reach bidders. There is pride that they achieved such a result, pride that they truly are the best. Ekaterina and MiM are the best in Russia, and reach people want the best service, the best coins and the best catalogues. They are ready to pay for it. This is why the most prestigious auctioneers around the world have an ability to get higher prices for the same kind of coins.

 

WCO

[bobh]

I recently sold this

http://i01.expertcollector.com/uploads/0003000790_1.jpg

to one client in Russia. Guess what it went for?

US-$800? Maybe US-$1,000?

Am I even close??

[bobh]

[snip...]

By the way, it is a mystery to me: each MiM auction usually has such a rich bidder or a couple of those. But I never see those people come back to another Russian auction, as far as I can remember them, for at least the past 2-3 years. What is the point of buying 2-10 coins and stopping there....

Very little point, Timofei!

 

But ... is it possible that the "rich bidders" are actually working for the auction house? (i.e. corresponding to eBay "shill bidders")?

(?? ... that is, if they never come back ... ??)

[Timofei]

Very little point, Timofei!

 

But ... is it possible that the "rich bidders" are actually working for the auction house? (i.e. corresponding to eBay "shill bidders")?

(?? ... that is, if they never come back ... ??)

 

 

Usually, we know when it is 'shield' bidding. These cases are different.

If this is investment - I think those investors made little homework. Service and prestige of buying from 'the best' auction house is ok, when you know exactly what you need and what you can have. I am surprised, that instead of paying today 16000+5% or +10% for 1912 Throne rouble to the auction - they can get for less money the same coin in better condition from Mr. V.Kazakov and chances are that if they are lucky or pay extra they can get the very same coin pictured in Kazakov katalog.

[WCO]

US-$800? Maybe US-$1,000?

Am I even close??

 

 

No, bobh, you are not even close to the price that was paid. I do not want to disclose the exact price sold, but it went for more than on MiM's auction Timofei was talking about. I disagree with Timofei's opinion that there is something "crazy" about pricing of at least some rare coins he was pointing out to. Already two of them were sold for 2-3 times more than he was thinking the coins "deserve" to be sold for.

 

 

Usually, we know when it is 'shield' bidding. These cases are different.

If this is investment - I think those investors made little homework. Service and prestige of buying from 'the best' auction house is ok, when you know exactly what you need and what you can have. I am surprised, that instead of paying today 16000+5% or +10% for 1912 Throne rouble to the auction - they can get for less money the same coin in better condition from Mr. V.Kazakov and chances are that if they are lucky or pay extra they can get the very same coin pictured in Kazakov katalog.

 

This only proves that Kazakov has either less creditability than MiM or less known on the market as a seller. Being an author of a book does not make him automatically a good dealer.

 

WCO

[worldcoinguy]

I sense a large number of newly "minted" coin aficionados entering the market in the past few years in the Russian coin market. I question if the success of the market itself is drawing more Russian collectors. Money attracts money. I wonder if any of the steep upward trend in Russian coin prices can be attributed to a speculation mentality which is often found in a bubble market.

 

Of course, I realize that you cannot draw macro trends from micro-level activity. In particular, drawing conclusions from a handful of unknowledgable bidders is not fair. With that said, I keep churning around vague similarities between the current Russian market and the 1928/1929 stock market, the 1998/1999 US tech stock market, the recent US real estate boom, etc.

- High number of new consumers with little knowledge

- Large number of people in search of quick money

- Rapid price increases

- "This will last forever" mentality

 

My disclaimer: I am not an alarmist, nor do I see the sky falling. I love Russian numismatics for many reasons. These are just thoughts I have pondered lately.

[gxseries]

You see Bobh, I was not only judging the market by the auctions. I had a few Russian buyers in the past wanting to buy the other commemrative rubles and I was not prepared to sell them anytime. I did sell other coins eventually to Russian buyers and yes, they were willing to pay even though I thought it was excessive at that time.

 

Let's put aside for the Imperial Russian coins for the moment. Have anyone realized the modern coins that both Moscow and Leningrad mints are producing? Quite a few of them are stunner coins in my opinion. There seems to be kilo gold coins minted EVERY YEAR ever since 1996 (hope I am not wrong). Some of them are outrageously expensive and yet there seem to be buyers!

[IgorS]

I think the time for collectors is over at Ekaterina auctions

 

I just came back from Gorny auction in Munich. No new faces there. Same guys buying for their clients, buying for resale, and very few buying for their collections. The resale coins will later show up in dessending order by quility in Ekaterina, Alexander, Gelos and Conros. So collectors in Russia just have to buy their coins before they get to Russia for resale.

IMHO

[Timofei]

I just came back from Gorny auction in Munich. No new faces there. Same guys buying for their clients, buying for resale, and very few buying for their collections. The resale coins will later show up in dessending order by quility in Ekaterina, Alexander, Gelos and Conros. So collectors in Russia just have to buy their coins before they get to Russia for resale.

IMHO

 

 

Usually collectors from Russia and Ukraine do not travel much there, many people I know make bids through known dealers from Moscow and Kiev who bid there personally and bring coins back for a small fee. I am sure you know all these dealers.

[IgorS]

You may know already new records set during the Ekaterina (Monety I Medali) auction #39. I participated today in this event. It seems that the high prices are paid only be new fresh rich 'numismatists' who happen to dream about investing. I think the time for collectors is over at Ekaterina auctions

 

Timofei, I appreciate you commenting on this auction. I am sure many others do as well. Could we make it a permanent feature? I would really appreciate you commenting on the future Russian auctions as well. I think collectors deserve to know what really happens in the auction rooms, before they decide to pay more for the coins they want.

[Loyal Citizen]

Timofei, I appreciate you commenting on this auction. I am sure many others do as well. Could we make it a permanent feature? I would really appreciate you commenting on the future Russian auctions as well. I think collectors deserve to know what really happens in the auction rooms, before they decide to pay more for the coins they want.

 

 

Great idea ! I'd like to add that it would be really nice to have our representative (or correspondent) in Russia.

[Timofei]

No problem with that. In general it would be good if anyone of us who personally was present at an auction worldwide give his personal opinion. Recent G&M set new records too but what info I have - is through returned Russians (I spoke to M.Diakov and some dealers).

[Loyal Citizen]

No problem with that. In general it would be good if anyone of us who personally was present at an auction worldwide give his personal opinion. Recent G&M set new records too but what info I have - is through returned Russians (I spoke to M.Diakov and some dealers).

 

Is there anything specific you'd like to know about G&M auction?

[IgorS]

No problem with that. In general it would be good if anyone of us who personally was present at an auction worldwide give his personal opinion. Recent G&M set new records too but what info I have - is through returned Russians (I spoke to M.Diakov and some dealers).

 

Here are my impressions and questions regarding G&M:

 

1. All the decent pieces were heavily reserved. I am guessing from 2 times the estimate and up.

In a perfect world the reserve should be 80% of the estimate.

 

2. Why did people buy a few hundred worn Peter I seaman type roubles for 500 Euro+?

 

3. I thought cut bid is the last bid, but not at Gorny.

 

4. Dealers from Baltic states were strong bidders, claiming that they do not have much material locally.

 

5. Many questions on the authenticity of the material.

 

All of the above IMHO.

[Loyal Citizen]

More observations:

 

1. There were just a few REALLY choice coins.

2. Most of the coins were cleaned (or dipped). BTW, they would never make it through NGC or PCGS.

3. Paul through Nicholas II were represented poorly (one would think that this period should be easy :-)

[Timofei]

More observations:

 

1. There were just a few REALLY choice coins.

2. Most of the coins were cleaned (or dipped). BTW, they would never make it through NGC or PCGS.

3. Paul through Nicholas II were represented poorly (one would think that this period should be easy :-)

 

 

I have a feeling that Monety & Medaly as well as G&M are following the trend of offering mainstream material: that means no matter what is the condition or rarity - it should sell good for just being a 'Russian' coin. Why bother.

 

Also I want to point out the situation with the Russian Gelos auction (came to my mind because of the discussion in other forum). Old time collectors may remember that years ago a Gelos auction was an event. We all noted that recently the quality and quantity of Gelos numismatic auctions comes to quite a degradation. This spring they auctioned a series of expensive coins - it was not very successful because the very same coins had been just sold at western auctions (Markov etc.) Ideed - not so easy to sell a coin at a substantial premium after 1-2-3 months of its first sale. Since that time I cannot recollect anything interesting except for 1 kopeck 1762 (excavated in Ekaterinburg, awfully cleaned afterwards, but still maybe the best known coin of the type). Now look at their monthly auction: http://www.gelos.ru/month/oct2006/numizmat.html Even holed coins!

Consignors just do not want to submit their coins due to repayment policy (money are not paid back in due time and usually the seller must wait quite some weeks or months before getting the payment for sold coins) and the authority of Gelos expert panel is quite low - there are no people of trustful experience.

[28Plain]

4. Dealers from Baltic states were strong bidders, claiming that they do not have much material locally.

 

It's easy to see why this is a problem for collectors in the Baltic states. In the 1990s, US coin markets were flooded with pre WWII Baltic and Central European silver coins. Baltic states coins will probably have very long trips home to their local collectors.

[gxseries]

I wouldn't be too suprised as well. I bought a few of my 'rarest' commemorative rubles from the Baltic states before.

[WCO]

It's easy to see why this is a problem for collectors in the Baltic states. In the 1990s, US coin markets were flooded with pre WWII Baltic and Central European silver coins. Baltic states coins will probably have very long trips home to their local collectors.

 

 

It's a different problem though. Russian coins make their long journeys home being first purchased by Baltic dealers. This is mostly because there are NO SAFE WAYS to deliver anything to Russia by mail. You can only deliver safely with a person that flies back to Russia.

 

Delivery to Baltic countries by mail is quite safe. Latvian, Lithuanian and Estonian dealers re-sale and deliver coins farther. St. Petersburg is not far from there, Moscow another few hours by train. Until Russia will not offer safe mail delivery, better laws for import/export of antiques (and coins in particular) it will go the same way. Baltic dealers will prosper and Russian collectors suffer.

 

WCO