Prices on Russian coins on Heritage

[WCO]

I do not know what, but it seems for me that some sort of craziness takes over Russian dealers and collectors. Prices on today's Heritage will reflect it. Some coins are already above and beyond. Like common date 1840's Rubles in MS-65/66 for $6000+15% etc...

 

Just a year ago on Goldbergs 1859 Commemorative Ruble in Proof was $5500 or so, just a few days ago same quality Ruble went over $11K on Goldbergs. Double within one year. Where are we going?

 

The question is. What should collector do? Sit on the sidelines and collect worn garbage or jump in with money to buy while he can since if tendency will be the same quality coins will double in price within one year again?

 

Regards,

WCO

[HuliganRS]

WCO,

 

These prices will take all the fun out of collecting for a vast majority of us!

 

I used to collect Soviet Orders and Medals. When I started I made some high dollar purchases which at the time seemed like I was crazy for spending a few thousand dollars for a military decoration. I had a blast collecting them and came pretty close to owning almost everything short of the really expensive stuff (5k and up)

 

Then all of a sudden the market took off like a rocket! Common stuff like Red Stars that I bought for $5-$20 became $50 Red Banners that I was buying $35-$45 became $150

 

It got to the point where collecting and researching is just not worth it.

 

As an example of craziness:

I sold my Kutuzov 2nd class which I purchased for $1,200 for over $5k

Suvorov 2nd class which I paid $3,500 for a bit over $10k

Bogdan Khmelnitsky 2nd class for which I paid $1,700 for over 7k

[gxseries]

It just means time to sell and wait for the market to crash Well honestly, there is nothing I can do at the moment. Fortunately there are still bargains from time to time with worn / damaged coins and I guess I'll continue on that

 

Nice profit there Huligan - I'm guessing it must be the family members who wanted to get them back desperately (makes me wonder where these money are coming from at the same time though )

 

The thing is, would we see a bubble coming soon sometime? (I better hope so though - so that us collectors don't have to pay insane prices) Somewhat reminds me of the numismatic market in the 90s and then it came crashing down hard.

[WCO]

WCO,

 

These prices will take all the fun out of collecting for a vast majority of us!

 

I used to collect Soviet Orders and Medals. When I started I made some high dollar purchases which at the time seemed like I was crazy for spending a few thousand dollars for a military decoration. I had a blast collecting them and came pretty close to owning almost everything short of the really expensive stuff (5k and up)

 

Then all of a sudden the market took off like a rocket! Common stuff like Red Stars that I bought for $5-$20 became $50 Red Banners that I was buying $35-$45 became $150

 

It got to the point where collecting and researching is just not worth it.

 

As an example of craziness:

I sold my Kutuzov 2nd class which I purchased for $1,200 for over $5k

Suvorov 2nd class which I paid $3,500 for a bit over $10k

Bogdan Khmelnitsky 2nd class for which I paid $1,700 for over 7k

 

 

Good profit. I would keep those orders they are quite rare, especially if with documents and in nice condition. So what are the chances you ever will be able to buy them back?

 

If market continues like that would you be upset by learning that each Kutuzov, Suvorov and Khmelnitskiy 2-nd classes worth over $50K each?

 

The right question asked gxseries, I am also interested to know. "Would we see a bubble coming soon sometime?" So where it all goes, up or down, and timing is the most important. May be we are just at the beginning of bull market, or this is all overheated enough already and bears will take over?

 

WCO

[GHV]

Hi,

 

Just coins getting expencive.

I think its normal, (exept some cases, like 1859 ruble etc... just at goldberg action sold out PF62Cameo, and this one PF63DEEP CAMEO, but still 13k included comission, expencive, I could give 7k no more)

 

To compair Russian rare high grade coins or just better high grades, to US coins, we can see that graded amount of russian coin very very low, and not really easy to find.

Just couple pieces in high grade. and prices not that high as US coins, that has much more graded such high...

So I think today Russian coin market getting hot. Most of coins goes back to the Russia, people becomes rich, and trying to get all russian unique pieces back...

 

And I think Prices won't go down. And coins (GOOD COINS) will be one of the best investments.

 

And about Collectors... I think they should find a better job to make more money and pay high prices for coins that they like to have.

[Oldman]

Hi,

 

Just coins getting expencive.

I think its normal, (exept some cases, like 1859 ruble etc... just at goldberg action sold out PF62Cameo, and this one PF63DEEP CAMEO, but still 13k included comission, expencive, I could give 7k no more)

 

To compair Russian rare high grade coins or just better high grades, to US coins, we can see that graded amount of russian coin very very low, and not really easy to find.

Just couple pieces in high grade. and prices not that high as US coins, that has much more graded such high...

So I think today Russian coin market getting hot. Most of coins goes back to the Russia, people becomes rich, and trying to get all russian unique pieces back...

 

And I think Prices won't go down. And coins (GOOD COINS) will be one of the best investments.

 

And about Collectors... I think they should find a better job to make more money and pay high prices for coins that they like to have.

 

I would not be so optimistic about Russian coins' perspective.

 

1) Historically, ANY trade market has ups and downs. Russia is not an exception here. If you analyze most recent auctions , you'll notice that the material is flooding the market - this is the first indication of the bearish market: prices are high and publics starts to sell. It will continue for some time, prices will freeze, then, they move down and , finally, fall - typical scenario....Well,some time ago, I placed a posting with my analysis and prediction here.

 

2) One can not compare Russian and US coin markets:

 

-In this country, it is very well organized and established with large number of legal dealers and auctions easily available to the public. As a result, public interest grows and the number of collectors is steady, at least. Another positive feature of the developed numismatic market is the third party independent grading services that serve public interests (in most cases). They set standards , so, the beginners do not have to rely on some Taganka's "specialists" to get their coins evaluated. And lastly, there is a number of laws and regulations that deal with this area of public interest.

 

-On the contrary , in Russia, the standards are historically very subjective area; the market reminds Wild West times and laws; no laws or regulatory instructions on how to deal with increasing public interest in antiques, no transparent borders - these lead to law violations , crimes, corruption, etc. The interest in numismatics just seems steady.

 

..we can go on and on but you got an idea...

 

In any event, always yours,

[GHV]

I would not be so optimistic about Russian coins' perspective.

 

1) Historically, ANY trade market has ups and downs. Russia is not an exception here. If you analyze most recent auctions , you'll notice that the material is flooding the market - this is the first indication of the bearish market: prices are high and publics starts to sell. It will continue for some time, prices will freeze, then, they move down and , finally, fall - typical scenario....Well,some time ago, I placed a posting with my analysis and prediction here.

 

2) One can not compare Russian and US coin markets:

 

-In this country, it is very well organized and established with large number of legal dealers and auctions easily available to the public. As a result, public interest grows and the number of collectors is steady, at least. Another positive feature of the developed numismatic market is the third party independent grading services that serve public interests (in most cases). They set standards , so, the beginners do not have to rely on some Taganka's "specialists" to get their coins evaluated. And lastly, there is a number of laws and regulations that deal with this area of public interest.

 

-On the contrary , in Russia, the standards are historically very subjective area; the market reminds Widl West times; no laws or regulatory instructions on how to deal with increasing public interest in antiques, no transparent borders - these lead to law violations , crimes, corruption, etc. The interest in numismatics just seems steady.

 

..we can go on and on but you got an idea...

 

In any event, always yours,

 

I agree with your opinion, but we have to count that Russians getting richer, and lot's of interest to different antique stuff including coins. People loose lot's of History during 1917 revolution, and now many of collectors trying to fix that mistake. I think most coins goes back to Russian, and there huge market for it. If you check last several actions (in Russia) you will be surprized about high prices.

But I think russian coins has more space to grow up in prices, so we should exept more jumps in prices in future. Again, its my opinion. I'm not super-expert, but still can make some own opinions about it. I could be wrong, nobody is perfect

Many people involted into the Coin market, and its getting bigger and bigger.

Now dealers has to figure out what prices to put on russian coins, I'm sure they confused :-)

[WCO]

I would not be so optimistic about Russian coins' perspective.

 

1) Historically, ANY trade market has ups and downs. Russia is not an exception here. If you analyze most recent auctions , you'll notice that the material is flooding the market - this is the first indication of the bearish market: prices are high and publics starts to sell. It will continue for some time, prices will freeze, then, they move down and , finally, fall - typical scenario....Well,some time ago, I placed a posting with my analysis and prediction here.

 

2) One can not compare Russian and US coin markets:

 

-In this country, it is very well organized and established with large number of legal dealers and auctions easily available to the public. As a result, public interest grows and the number of collectors is steady, at least. Another positive feature of the developed numismatic market is the third party independent grading services that serve public interests (in most cases). They set standards , so, the beginners do not have to rely on some Taganka's "specialists" to get their coins evaluated. And lastly, there is a number of laws and regulations that deal with this area of public interest.

 

-On the contrary , in Russia, the standards are historically very subjective area; the market reminds Wild West times and laws; no laws or regulatory instructions on how to deal with increasing public interest in antiques, no transparent borders - these lead to law violations , crimes, corruption, etc. The interest in numismatics just seems steady.

 

..we can go on and on but you got an idea...

 

In any event, always yours,

 

Thank you for the valuable addition, oldman. I even heard stories that Russian newly made billionaires started to pour money into coins as investment, savings for future times that may be not so bright for them. Everyone there still remembers recent default of 1990-s in Russia when people overnight lost their savings in banks and real estate market lost 2/3 of its value. In such situations coins and gold itself are safe heavens. As funny as it sounds it may be the truth, and if it is it may drive Russian coin market much higher.

 

Also I myself don't see that "the material is flooding the market". For me it seems exactly the opposite, a very few quality coins are now for sale and if one wants to buy it - he needs to win a bidding war, overpay a lot.

 

 

...

To compair Russian rare high grade coins or just better high grades, to US coins, we can see that graded amount of russian coin very very low, and not really easy to find.

Just couple pieces in high grade. and prices not that high as US coins, that has much more graded such high...

So I think today Russian coin market getting hot. Most of coins goes back to the Russia, people becomes rich, and trying to get all russian unique pieces back...

 

And I think Prices won't go down. And coins (GOOD COINS) will be one of the best investments.

...

 

I would agree that Russian coins are way rarer and still underpriced if comparable to similar US coins. But rarity of coins has only partial relation to coins' prices.

 

WCO

[GHV]

Why Everybody talking about - that coins very expencive, and nobody talks about - that coins 2-3-4 years ago was SO CHEAP?

 

Now coins moving approximetly to the right price-position, if compair with other World GOOD (rare/scarce) coin prices.

 

So if in one year prices will grow up for another 20-50% (or more) don't be surprized

[squirrel]

I agree with the points of view of both Oldman and GHV, as the to the generalities of the trends. What one can not predict, however, is the time frames of the economic cycles that are taking place, and the rates of increase for the values of these coins. Perhaps the market as such will crash, but it wont be a year or two. It may be 10, 20 or more years! The two worlds of COLLECTORS (what most of us here, i hope, are) versus INVESTORS who would just as soon buy an empty plastic box, if someone proved to them it would be worth twice what they paid for it, in a few years, this is what is happening now. I think it is safe to say there are more new collectors every year than old collectors dying or cashing in and selling. AND there are more new INVESTORS every year. The number of old russian coins remains the same. There will be no "crash" any time soon, but things will level eventually. Just not in our lifetimes.

 

[Timofei]

I would not be so optimistic about Russian coins' perspective.

 

1) Historically, ANY trade market has ups and downs.

 

Besides coin market cycles - there is natural economic cycle. Russian economy expects new crisis. Sooner or later it will happen. This became common talk now (especially among those who are engaged in business and who does not judges the prosperity by optimistic govenrnment forecasts). So at the time of crisis people will be reluctant to support the growth rate of coin prices.

 

I totally agree with Oldman in all what he said - couldn't be said better.

[gxseries]

There is a dangerous assumption that everyone is making that is how rarely do people forget that someone is stashing a huge hoard of them and left completely forgotten until someone passes away or it gets revealed, like the hoard of Nicholai II 5 ruble coins stored in Bank of Norway. Well putting that unusual case aside (well it did happen with the case of US morgon dollars in the 70s) Link example: http://www.pandaamerica.com/NEWS_1902_5rou...4_04_PRINT.html

 

Honestly, I'm actually more puzzled over the distribution of Russian coins globally, not only Imperial Russian coins but as well as Soviet coins. Recent prices in Soviet coins have been more than shocking as the rarest mintset supposely 1970 has hit a record of 650USD and has refused to go any cheaper than 600USD (which I think is exaggerated) and all the sets that I have seen are coming out from the US. Suprise? If I could only drag a mint officer from Moscow Mint or Leningrad Mint and pull their record books, that would be MORE interesting.

 

It's true that a fair amount of coins were taken out of the country and it's unaccountable of actually how many coins were destroyed as well as how much were taken out of the country.

 

At one stage here, a dealer actually had 20+ nice gold Russian coins of Alexander III and earlier, few platinum coins (and yes a few more of other commemorative rubles etc) and simply mentioned that most of them were from Russian migrants or passed down from Russian families etc and their children weren't too interested in them. Now most of the best ones were bought by Russian descents. Yes, and I only wished I was smart enough to get one but appearently I don't like gold. Smartass

 

Of course, rare and pattern coins are in their right prices but sometimes when I look at what people are willing to bid for scrap coins, there is an unhealthy mentality that people are thinking that whatever that is Russian will increase in value anyways, which I think is dangerous. For example, VF or less COMMON copper coins of Nicholai II on ebay - 1 dollar each, people will still buy them at that price. Consider how many millions were minted by then and how many do exist.

[HuliganRS]

Coming from orders and medals field I can tell you that allot of the high prices are paid via proxy from Russia.

I sold a huge chunk of my collection and it all went to Russia.

 

I agree that there are people with money there and they need to diversify. They are investing sick money into everything that has potential or is rare. A friend sells Soviet uniforms that were brought here in the early 90's from the museums and film studios as well as families of soldiers and now 90% of his business is going back there.

 

Going back to price trends. I can tell you that the prices on orders didn't increase much after I sold mine but they also scared away too many potential collectors that simply can't afford nice things. Most of us have mortgage, car and other payments and spare money is what we use for these purchases. The prices are pretty level only due to no demand, as such now very nice things are coming up for sale.

 

Just for giggles, take a look here: http://www.collectrussia.com/showcat.htm?cat=ww2topmil

 

What you see is only 1/4 if not less of the real inventory. If there's no demand, who cares what it costs!

[WCO]

Besides coin market cycles - there is natural economic cycle. Russian economy expects new crisis. Sooner or later it will happen. This became common talk now (especially among those who are engaged in business and who does not judges the prosperity by optimistic govenrnment forecasts). So at the time of crisis people will be reluctant to support the growth rate of coin prices.

...

 

This is VERY questionable. On one side people in case of crisis will have less money to support farther growth, on the other hand (as we know from history) gold and coins are doing well during such times, and while Ruble and Russian real estate will be falling hard gold and coin owners will be prospering. So it is not known what potential crisis would do to a coin market, bring it down or to the moon. And for now we see that just expectation of a crisis years from now already driving prices up. Any thoughts?

 

 

2: HuliganRS. Thanks for showing so comprehensive site with awards. I enjoyed looking (never was much into this field though).

 

WCO

[grivna1726]

I agree with the points of view of both Oldman and GHV, as the to the generalities of the trends. What one can not predict, however, is the time frames of the economic cycles that are taking place, and the rates of increase for the values of these coins. Perhaps the market as such will crash, but it wont be a year or two. It may be 10, 20 or more years! The two worlds of COLLECTORS (what most of us here, i hope, are) versus INVESTORS who would just as soon buy an empty plastic box, if someone proved to them it would be worth twice what they paid for it, in a few years, this is what is happening now. I think it is safe to say there are more new collectors every year than old collectors dying or cashing in and selling. AND there are more new INVESTORS every year. The number of old russian coins remains the same. There will be no "crash" any time soon, but things will level eventually. Just not in our lifetimes.

 

 

 

To me, this feels a lot like the US coin market in 1980 because the prices are jumping so much and it becomes hard to know what is a fair price to pay for things in such a situation.

 

But it is not quite the same.

 

Yes, prices are rising rapidly and surely speculation is a significant factor.

 

However, one thing that is very different is the fact that for many years (i.e. during the Soviet period), Russian coins were almost unique in that they were the only coins of a major world power for which there were virtually no buyers from the home country. The buyers for the coins were virtually all people who lived outside Russia.

 

This meant that prices for good Imperial Russian coins were artificially held down for nearly a century in a country which traditionally has had a very strong interest in numismatics.

 

So prices have exploded upward as Russians became able to buy outside the former USSR, which is hardly surprising.

 

What will happen over the next few years is hard to say and prices might indeed cool off. But long term, Russia is growing richer and has a bright future, which bodes well for the Russian coin market.

 

Nobody bats an eye if an unimportant US coin sells for $30,000 or more in a major auction. Yet important and truly rare Russian coins frequently still sell for less than that amount.

 

It seems to me that while we might be shell-shocked by the price increases we are seeing, maybe we should consider that the prices only seem so crazy because they were so absurdly low for such a long time.

[GHV]

What will happen over the next few years is hard to say and prices might indeed cool off. But long term, Russia is growing richer and has a bright future, which bodes well for the Russian coin market.

 

Nobody bats an eye if an unimportant US coin sells for $30,000 or more in a major auction. Yet important and truly rare Russian coins frequently still sell for less than that amount.

 

It seems to me that while we might be shell-shocked by the price increases we are seeing, maybe we should consider that the prices only seem so crazy because they were so absurdly low for such a long time.

 

 

 

That's what I'm talking about!!!!!!!

Nobody noticed that prices before was VERY LOW!!!!

 

Russian Bear is Woke up

[squirrel]

Russian Bear is Woke up

 

 

exactly.

[WCO]

Russian Bear is Woke up

 

 

That's right, Russian Bear is now awaken (since we already discassing the issue). No one answered WHEN this bear will kill the Bull? Or may be the Bull will kill the Bear? Timing is the most important... and direction of course. For now there are no clear answers...

 

WCO

[squirrel]

imagine the following scenario.

 

Russian govt passes a law that makes it illegal for private persons to own rare antiquities, including but not limited to Gold and Silver coins. These are to be turned in to the state, at a "fair" compensatory rate, based on weight. The precious metal is melted, and used to back up the Ruble.

 

Export of such national treasures is illegal.

 

Buyers outside Russia remain in strong positions to purchase, but Russians are now afraid to buy from each other (there will always be a black market..)

 

What happens to inventory and prices outside Russia?

 

This is assuming some type of logic defying, sweeping revolutionary change occurs in Russia. Of course, this could never really happen.

[grivna1726]

This is assuming some type of logic defying, sweeping revolutionary change occurs in Russia. Of course, this could never really happen.

 

 

Russia is going forward, not back, no matter what nonsense appears in the Western media.

[GHV]

imagine the following scenario.

 

Russian govt passes a law that makes it illegal for private persons to own rare antiquities, including but not limited to Gold and Silver coins. These are to be turned in to the state, at a "fair" compensatory rate, based on weight. The precious metal is melted, and used to back up the Ruble.

 

 

WOWOWOW!!!

 

Communists coming back?????

Do not joke like that Amigo

[squirrel]

It was illegal for Americans to own gold until relatively recently.

remember?

 

 

Russia is indeed a forward moving member of the world economy, and that will not change. But who would have predicted that the laws would prevent a Russian from selling some old coins to a buyer outside the country? Communism is thankfully dead and gone, but you never know what crazy laws could be passed, for whatever reason!

[WCO]

imagine the following scenario.

 

Russian govt passes a law that makes it illegal for private persons to own rare antiquities, including but not limited to Gold and Silver coins. These are to be turned in to the state, at a "fair" compensatory rate, based on weight. The precious metal is melted, and used to back up the Ruble.

 

Export of such national treasures is illegal.

 

Buyers outside Russia remain in strong positions to purchase, but Russians are now afraid to buy from each other (there will always be a black market..)

....

 

Good scenario for a modernist style black humor movie. This kind of movies was popular in Russia in early 1990's when inflation was 20-50% a month.

 

So if some kind of financial disaster again occurs in Russia, what is going to happen with Russian coin market? Is it going up or down then? Any thoughts?

 

WCO

[GHV]

Its very hard thing to guess what will happen.

 

But I think:

 

13.98% - will go down.

64.52% - will go UP

21.50% - will be around the same for next 6-9 months.

 

[squirrel]

Its very hard thing to guess what will happen.

 

But I think:

 

13.98% - will go down.

64.52% - will go UP

21.50% - will be around the same for next 6-9 months.

 

 

My calculations are the same, except

 

3.14 % will go down

 

other numbers are 50/50