Commodity market = the metals market. London Metal Exchange (LME), Comex, and some others.
Intrinsic value of a coin = value of the coin as scrap metal.
So value of a coin as scrap (as sites such as coinflation try to show/calculate) would not be affected by mintage.
The collector value of a coin, will likely be increased somewhat by a lower mintage if it is significantly lower to be significant. The current ATB quarters, (even also some of the last state/terr quarters) for example, have much lower mintages than previously, and as such may command a higher value in UNC down the road. However...
Reducing a mintage (especially if the reduced mintage was known ahead of time) would usually increase hoarding in expectation of it being a rarity later. The 1931-S cent is a good example - people took notice at the time, and so it is frequently encountered in higher grades.