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So I was talking to my dad...


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Both my mother and father have given me a good number of coins. Some of my favorites fall within the batch that they gave me. Per the advice of a dealer I talked to at the Whitman Expo last weekend, I have separated all the coins my parents gave me, put them in 2x2's and given them their own storage boxes.

 

I start to show my father some of the other neat things I have acquired and he starts getting onto me about the hobby. He keeps telling me that I will only lose money in the hobby and that you have to be a real expert to make any money. I explained to him that many of the coins that I like aren't too terribly expensive, and that I always research them to the best of my ability before I really buy anything. I also explained that it is a hobby, and I am not trying to retire early. He did not really get it, no matter how hard I explained.

 

My main interest is simply collecting coins that I enjoy, and I have not really found a niche yet. I want to prove my father wrong here in a calculated way.

 

What are some coins that you can say with 99% certainty will increase in value in say 20 years. Are there any specifics that stand out to grow more than others? I am interested in coins < $1,000.

 

Would it be a particular Morgan or series of Morgans? 1909 S V.D.B. Lincoln? A commemorative? A gold Saint?

 

What says ye?

 

-Robert

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I see gold going up even more. Currently I'm saving for a $20 Double Eagle or two.

 

The 1909-S V.D.B. will go up in price. How much is hard to say but with more and more collectors, the demand will surely rise.

 

I really can't comment on silver. Price doesn't really seem to be moving like gold is. Who knows 20 years from now. It could be worth $10 an ounce or more.

 

I'm at the same point as yourself but with different people in mind. My Grandfather got me started, dad actively helps me with proof and mint sets, and Erica (the girlfriend) is the one questioning my hobby. Many of the coins I've purchased have already went up a few dollars in a year or so. None are investment quality but an increase is an increase.

 

All advice given is from a 20 year old collector who is not HIGHLY educated in coins. Getting there though :ninja:

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This is a tough one as I believe we are in the early years of a bull market in coins and other tangible assets. So in that sense you could buy just about anything and probably make money. It amazes me how much the prices of recent proof sets have moved and I just paid what the mint was selling them for. But remember, bull markets can also become bear markets, and I remember well the coin bear market that pretty much lasted from 1981 through 1999, and then it didn't matter what you bought, you were probably going to lose money (which sounds like your father's perspective). My only advice is to collect what makes you happy and let the dollars and cents work themselves out, since worrying about investment potential first will likely ensure your success at neither.

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Both my mother and father have given me a good number of coins.  Some of my favorites fall within the batch that they gave me.  Per the advice of a dealer I talked to at the Whitman Expo last weekend, I have separated all the coins my parents gave me, put them in 2x2's and given them their own storage boxes.

 

That is a good idea. I have done this with all the coins I got from my Dad and late Grandfather.

 

As for the losing money part. I couldn't care less about that because I don't buy anything I can't afford and am not out to make a profit. None the less, every time I go to look at the price of a US coin I have bought in the last 6 or so years, it seems that it has increased in value. If an ignoramus, anti-coin investment guy like me can do that without even trying, coins can't be that bad. ;)

 

Of course, the entire market could crash tomorrow and my coins could end up as being worth only face value or bullion value or whatever. But, that wouldn't bother me. I'd just buy, buy, buy! :ninja:

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I start to show my father some of the other neat things I have acquired and he starts getting onto me about the hobby.  He keeps telling me that I will only lose money in the hobby and that you have to be a real expert to make any money.  I explained to him that many of the coins that I like aren't too terribly expensive, and that I always research them to the best of my ability before I really buy anything.  I also explained that it is a hobby, and I am not trying to retire early.  He did not really get it, no matter how hard I explained.

He may be absolutely right. You may only lose money in the hobby. Hobbies are not investments. Suppose you took up golf as a hobby - figure you would make a profit? Even real experts lose money in investments, including coins, all the time- you already know this. So, what do you think your Dad is getting on you about? My guess is that he doesn't want you to lose money -reasonable position I would say.

 

I want to prove my father wrong here in a calculated way.

What do you mean? You want to make a lot of $$$ investing in coins so you can say - look Dad, you were wrong?

 

What are some coins that you can say with 99% certainty will increase in value in say 20 years.  Are there any specifics that stand out to grow more than others?  I am interested in coins < $1,000.

None. And by the way, increasing in value in 20 years is not good enough to show a positive return in a real sense. You have to 1) account for inflation and 2) compare the return to other returns that vary in risk. A 1985 mint set had an issue price of $7. Redbook quotes its value at $9. It increased in value based on those numbers. But you would not be showing a real profit.

 

Since you asked for opinions, I would say...make up your mind... if you want to be a coin dealer, concentrate on that aspect (buisness). If you want to be a coin collector, concentrate on collecting within your means and learning all you can get your hands on about your coins. You can demonstrate success to your Dad (and anyone else) by your knowledge and subject-matter expertise as well as showing discipline and responsibility in managing your collection- and it sounds like you have been doing that!

 

If you *have* to proove Dad wrong, do it on paper...hypothetical investments etc...

 

When I was in my teens, I was absolutely amazed at how little my Dad knew about anything...By the time I hit 21, I was amazed at how much he had learned :ninja:

 

Finally, I am sorry if I sound too condescending, it is just my opinion.

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Key dates and selected commemoratives (e.g., Buffalo dollar) should all at least hold their value.

 

As for convincing your Dad about coin collecting, I'm reminded of something my mother once told me many, many years ago...

 

"For those who understand, no explanation is necessary. For those who do not understand, no explanation is possible."

 

Jerry

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In general coins are a terrable investment... but as others have pointed out....key dates in popular series like lincolin cents, merc dimes, walking lib halves, morgan dollars and gold are a good idea. if you pick the worng series to go for such as V Nickels it's harder to get a return on your investment because it is not a popular series. my reccomended coins:

 

an Mint State 1937 D 3 Legged Buffalo nickel

 

1909 S VDB's are always good....

 

any 1893 Morgans

 

1916 D Mercs

 

and most any 1921's

 

don't buy one that is not slabbed by either NGC or PCGS if you want the most return in 10 years....

 

that's about all I have

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Don't know if it helps to get things in perspective. I bought a Hammered English Cnut helmet penny, VF, from a dealer, in 1956 for £5. Sold it, with my whole collection, getting £15 for that one coin. I cannot buy it now for less than £100. Perspective?

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Since you asked for opinions, I would say...make up your mind... if you want to be a coin dealer, concentrate on that aspect (buisness).  If you want to be a coin collector, concentrate on collecting within your means and learning all you can get your hands on about your coins.  You can demonstrate success to your Dad (and anyone else) by your knowledge and subject-matter expertise as well as showing discipline and responsibility in managing your collection- and it sounds like you have been doing that!

 

 

 

When I was in my teens, I was absolutely amazed at how little my Dad knew about anything...By the time I hit 21, I was amazed at how much he had learned ;)

 

 

 

Sound advise,AMEN Brother :ninja:

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Dear Squirrel Nuts, like all fathers, I am also someone's son. Allow me to dedicate this to you. Bottom line: you have to decide for yourself how to live your life -- and you have to face the fact that you will never change his mind.

 

(This is from CAT STEVENS, an artist of the 1960s and early 1970s.)

 

FATHER & SON

 

Father

It's not time to make a change,

Just relax, take it easy.

You're still young, that's your fault,

There's so much you have to know.

Find a girl, settle down,

If you want you can marry.

Look at me, I am old, but I'm happy.

 

I was once like you are now, and I know that it's not easy,

To be calm when you've found something going on.

But take your time, think a lot,

Why, think of everything you've got.

For you will still be here tomorrow, but your dreams may not.

 

Son

How can I try to explain, when I do he turns away again.

It's always been the same, same old story.

From the moment I could talk I was ordered to listen.

Now there's a way and I know that I have to go away.

I know I have to go.

 

Father

It's not time to make a change,

Just sit down, take it slowly.

You're still young, that's your fault,

There's so much you have to go through.

Find a girl, settle down,

if you want you can marry.

Look at me, I am old, but I'm happy.

 

(Son-- Away Away Away, I know I have to

Make this decision alone - no)

 

Son

All the times that I cried, keeping all the things I knew inside,

It's hard, but it's harder to ignore it.

If they were right, I'd agree, but it's them They know not me.

Now there's a way and I know that I have to go away.

I know I have to go.

 

(Father-- Stay Stay Stay, Why must you go and

make this decision alone?)

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Collecting for fun... then you want to make a profit?

 

Are you sure you know where you're going with this?

 

 

Coins to steer clear of (from my own personal experience) are VFs. If you want investment you don't want VF. As one dealer once put it; VF's are too good for the junk grade collectors and too lowly for the specialist collectors or just those with alot of money to throw around.

 

You either want to go for F or EF. VF is no man's land that only seems to attract people like me (and collector's that don't sell and of their coins).

 

 

Take the following advice;

 

* Not always key dates (keys are sometimes overhyped), while coins next to them are seen to be more common than they infact are.

 

* Coins with eye appeal, undamaged, not cleaned, not overly toned bright colours (you want something with wide appeal, not niche market).

 

* Low mintages, and low survival rates.

 

* Something popular (that seems to be always fairly popular), like Morgans for example. Morgans get pretty annoying though, i'd go for top grade SLQs.

 

 

That's generally my advice anyhow. Gold isn't generally the winner, in my experience silver does better than anything.

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Yes, it is a hobby. No, we do not expect to make a profit.

Etc. Etc.

 

To which I say:

 

Q. David Bowers

David Hall

Jim Halperin

Greg Rohan

 

NGC

PCGS

ANACS

ICG

 

Amos Press

Krause

Whitman

 

ANA Conventions

Long Beach

Baltimore

NYINC

MSNS

Blue Ridge

FUN

 

... and about 100 fulltime coin dealers, 500 part-time coin dealers, about 1,000 longtime vestpocket dealers, and about 10,000 people on eBay -- and, of course, eBay itself.

 

There is money in numismatics. You can make money buying and selling numismatic collectibles. You can make money writing about them, putting on conventions, and doing a dozen other things. You can make money in this hobby.

 

What those who do not make money refuse to admit is that "the fault, dear Brutus lies with ourselves, and not with our stars, that we are underlings."

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Guest 50cents

* Not always key dates (keys are sometimes overhyped), while coins next to them are seen to be more common than they infact are.

 

 

 

Name one key date U.S. coin that has not risen in price in the last 20 years..

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* Not always key dates (keys are sometimes overhyped), while coins next to them are seen to be more common than they infact are.

Name one key date U.S. coin that has not risen in price in the last 20 years..

 

The only exception that I can think of is that more such examples are found, i.e. more than what was thought to be existing. Best example: 1933 20 dollar coin :ninja:

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Who said i was talking about US coins? 50 cents.

 

I was actually thinking of British when i wrote that. So 1750 sixpences are a key date? (the catalogue gives this impression), actually they're not. Some of the 1730s and the 1751 on the other hand! Priced either the same, or cheaper. Coins like this are what you should buy, sleepers. Coins that are currently underappreciated.

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Thank you all for the advice. It seems that I gave the wrong impression about my motives. When I referred to the calculated way, I was mainly referring to coin values on paper. I made up a spread sheet that compares the price of one coin, in multiple grades, at different years. I then plugged in data from a 1981 red book and 2006 red book. I am not trying to really show him up, just give a solid example of what can be acheived.

 

I truly do enjoy collecting just to collect what I enjoy. I went through the red book while fishing on Sunday and picked out a list of coins that I enjoy to try and find my niche. There was no special interest given to any series based upon a return on the investment.

 

The only thing I have done within the hobby that can be construed as an investment was to purchase boxes of 2005 P&D lincoln cents to hold down for the future. My plan was that since the only business strike 2005 cents have to come from rolls, rather than mint sets, that these would have a good trade value in the future for more coins that I enjoy, not cash.

 

Do not fret coinpeople. I appologize for any misunderstanding.

 

-Robert

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"Name one key date U.S. coin that has not risen in price in the last 20 years.. "

 

While I am not 100% positive, I'd say the 1950-D nickel would qualify for 'not rising in price in the last 20 years...'

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"Name one key date U.S. coin that has not risen in price in the last 20 years.. "

 

While I am not 100% positive, I'd say the 1950-D nickel would qualify for 'not rising in price in the last 20 years...'

 

It fell from $15.00 in 1965 to $8.50 in 2005 . Great Job.....

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SquirrelNuts, I don't thnk you gave the wrong impression, you just brought up a topic that stirred interest from a lot of folks. My personal 2-cents is that while no investment is certain, coins are much less likely to provide a solid return than other avenues (what could be referred to as economic "real profit" where the return you get is greater than your next possible alternative). If I were to invest in coins (as opposed to collecting), I would suggest that we are currently on the high-end of a market that tends to be very cyclical. Therefore, it would be a bad time to invest anyway.

It is also important to note that I am often wrong about such things.

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I think I understand what you were trying to get across SquirrelNuts. I have had something similar with my father. He has on occasion wondered why I spend my free money on coins. While I do not collect with investment in mind, I have for years followed the prices of many of my coins; it is a fun secondary aspect to collecting for me. Kind of like pretending to have a virtual stock portfolio and seeing how it performs.

 

Anyway, what I have noticed is that while coins may or may not appreciate in value, they often hold some[i/] value, and have a relatively stable and liquid market. So I have tried to assure my father that I could have a hobby where I sink money endlessly and will never see anything in return.

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Wow i never ever thought of doing that. I don't even track how much i've spent on coins. I know it's a lot, but i couldn't tell you how much i've spent on coins throughout my collecting years. Even more so i couldn't tell you how much i've lost, but i i'm almost certain i've lost double the amount i paid for each coin.

 

Tip 1, never sell to dealers. Unfortunately i'm a right here, right now kinda guy. No patience to try other methods, so i pay a price for speed, this doesn't bother me. I'm just no business man.

 

Money comes, money goes. You're only here a brief 60-80 years so as long as you have fun that's all that matters. I figure you're a long time dead and the rich is no different to the poor when he's dead, can't take it with him.

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