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Could one collector make a difference in price?


detz
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I was thinking about this on my lunch walk. What if someone picked a certain year coin, that was pretty common. Say a nickel or something and purchased, obtained as many as he could. Collected and collection until he had a real lot...then destroyed them. I know that's wrong but would that make a difference to that coin/year you think? What about on a smaller scale, say something that only had a few thousand to begin with....

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If the coin minted had (just an example) 30,000 pieces and someone destroyed 5,000 of them, to me the price would surely rise. Now if you destroyed that many of a coin that had 200,000,000 minted, I very highly doubt it would. Maybe a few cents.

 

Let's see if I'm correct on this.

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Somneone needs to do that to 1964 Jeff Nics.... I have about 1000 of those... hey maybe I can try it :ninja:

 

Seriously though...

 

As Burks pointed out, the total mintage is what would determine if destroying X amount of them would do. A good real life example (and sorry I dont know the specifics) but durring the silver boom A LOT of silver dollars were melted, after the silver boom the Silver coins, simply due to the loss in total examples, went up.

 

Thinking logicly I would thing that if 1/2 of a coin type was melted then the price for the remaining would double. 1/4 melted, up by 25%. But again that depends on the total examples. Whiping out 2,500,000 of 10,000,000 wouldnt seem to effect a coin worth as much as whiping out 1 of 4.

 

-Bobby

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Coin attrition no doubt affects the values of certian coins,but that attrition would have to be known, today we have estimates of attrition for most coins,, or based upon known examples exact numbers,, as soon as this person said that I collected, 20,000 of these coins for the specific purpose of attriting the series,, who would buy them, I wouldnt !!

 

Rick

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Thinking logicly I would thing that if 1/2 of a coin type was melted then the price for the remaining would double. 1/4 melted, up by 25%. But again that depends on the total examples. Whiping out 2,500,000 of 10,000,000 wouldnt seem to effect a coin worth as much as whiping out 1 of 4.

 

-Bobby

I disagree. The price is not given necessarily by the mintage. For example if you have 1000 ex. of a rare coin you can sell one today at maximum price,but if tomorrow you'll try to obtain the same price for a lot of 25 that's will never happens. The price depends of how many pieces are available on the same time, and how much the collectors are interested to buy in the same time.

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You guys are only looking at one side of the equation, focusing on supply without the effect of demand. You could destroy all but one coin of a particular issue, but if no one collects them, well guess what? No change in price. Look at some of the modern issues, like the butt-ugly 2002 SLC Olympic $5 with a mintage of less than 6,000. That coin is still selling under the issue price, and even if half were melted, I doubt it would make much difference.

 

Probably the best example in real life of such an occurence is the branch mint Saints of the 1920s. Most were extensively melted, and in some cases only 10-15 remain. But in the early days there were so few collectors that the melting had little impact on prices. Then over the years the rankings of rarity shifted like the tides as new hoards were found or new information on extant populations came to light. Right now, the 27-D is the king of the series, but 50 years ago it was the 24-S and 26-S that were the kings, while the 27-D was thought common. Ultimately, the population of the entire series hasn't changed much since the last were melted in the 1930s, so the entire change since then has resulted from more demand! More collectors buying the set, and bidding up the prices of the remaining few coins in existence. So if you are going to start hoarding 64 nickels, you better hope someone notices!

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Another point of view: France's gold 20 Francs 1900's are at bullion value in XF, because of mintage of millions. If they melted tomorrow 50% of total, but only the low grade coins, what will be happens with the remaining rest of UNC coins? I am sure that the price of UNC coins will drop until bullion value...

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the latest greysheet has them bid at $350

 

and if you haven't ordered your marine corps dollars yet, you might be out of luck getting them at the inital issue price....I have been told that they should be around $100 by christmas (I ordered 40 of each)

 

 

Unfortunately for me I need one of those 99 Silver sets. Already ordered the Proof/Unc Marines, got the proof, the mint is still lagging on that Unc.

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the latest greysheet has them bid at $350

 

and if you haven't ordered your marine corps dollars yet, you might be out of luck getting them at the inital issue price....I have been told that they should be around $100 by christmas (I ordered 40 of each)

 

I just hope I get my marine corps dollar by Christmas! :ninja:

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I bought my 99 set back when they first came out. I could careless about how high the value goes. But I can guess at one of the reasons why it keeps going up. There are too many dealers/collectors more worried about getting a graded proof 70 or 69 DCAM coin, that they are breaking open sets by the hundred. So to still own a uncracked set is going to be rare. I don't know the exact numbers, but lets say they made 750,000 silver proof sets in '99. if half of those sets get cracked open and sent to 3rd party grading companies. And demand has increased for a complete set, the value goes up. The more sets that get cracked open, the price will continue to climb.

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Somneone needs to do that to 1964 Jeff Nics.... I have about 1000 of those... hey maybe I can try it ;)

 

 

 

Don't waste your time--I own another 10,000 of them myself! :ninja: I seems every other nickel I find is a 1964 Jeff!

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Frankly, I think that some scarcer modern silver coins (ie. 1948 10c and 25c for Canadian, 1949-S dime for US) will become easier to get over time relatively due to the "common" dates around them being melted, while the ones seen as keys are saved.

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Another thing you have to into consideration is that, once you start to make a small dent in buying up a certain coin, the price will start rising significantly on the pieces you have left to buy. That would make it difficult to buy up a significant portion of any specific coin that is in demand unless you have really deep pockets.

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So far folks have only been considering individual coins of a specific date and mint. But what about an entire type ? You wouldn't think 1 person could have much effect on that. But they can. Much to my own regret - I found that out the hard way  ;)

 

 

It's your own fault GD, you shouldn't show pictures of ducats should you? ;)

 

Now we're all buying them! :ninja:

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It CAN make a difference. Mintage alone is one factor but demand is another factor. The law of economics, you can't escape it. ;)

 

Two years ago, I bought two Russian coins which is almost 1/3 of the current market price right now :ninja: It is not that the supply went down drastically; my best guess is that demand shot up pretty badly. ;)

 

Simply putting it is like putting one more collector into a bidding list - and if he's got the money, of course he has the power to push the prices up. :lol:

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