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Estimating how many coins remain in existence?


Rhino
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I was recently looking at mintage figures of some coins, and just to take an example: the Nicholas II coronation rouble had a mintage of about 190,000. Now, are there any statistics or estimates or ways to calculate how many (approximately) remain in existence today, 114 years after the coin was minted?

 

I'm sure that some of the Imperial coins were melted down, destroyed, and lost. It would be interesting to know how many of certain coins survived... for the coronation rouble, 1 in 190,000 is getting more exclusive, but if the figure is more like 1 in 70,000 114 years later, it makes it even more exclusive.

 

Opinions? Anyone tried to put together surviving estimates?

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I seriously doubt that there is a way to calculate anything like what you are trying to calculate. There are certain coins like 1839 Borodino, which has mint records indicating the total number melted down. But, even those records do not separate 1 rouble statistics from 1.5 rubles. Thus, without the records we can guess, but most likely will be far from the truth.

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I seriously doubt that there is a way to calculate anything like what you are trying to calculate. There are certain coins like 1839 Borodino, which has mint records indicating the total number melted down. But, even those records do not separate 1 rouble statistics from 1.5 rubles. Thus, without the records we can guess, but most likely will be far from the truth.

 

Yeah, I figured. I was just thinking about how many original coins might still be around, like the coronation rouble... I wish there was a way to know if it was like 90%, 70% 50%, etc.... just thinking out loud :ninja:

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I was recently looking at mintage figures of some coins, and just to take an example: the Nicholas II coronation rouble had a mintage of about 190,000. Now, are there any statistics or estimates or ways to calculate how many (approximately) remain in existence today, 114 years after the coin was minted?

 

I'm sure that some of the Imperial coins were melted down, destroyed, and lost. It would be interesting to know how many of certain coins survived... for the coronation rouble, 1 in 190,000 is getting more exclusive, but if the figure is more like 1 in 70,000 114 years later, it makes it even more exclusive.

 

Opinions? Anyone tried to put together surviving estimates?

It really is not possible to estimate survival rates of gold and silver coins from mintage figures.

This is especially true for Russia, because of the 1917 Revolution and the ensuing confiscation

of many collections, but also for other countries as well for differing reasons.

 

One can arrive at a reasonable estimate of the number of coins in existence, for a given piece, by

doing statistical studies of such coins that appear at auction over a period of several years. Even

this is sometimes uncertain due to hoarding, as is seen in the U.S. market, which has been heavily

studied for years and there are still disputes on just how rare a given coin is.

 

RWJ

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