halfdollar Posted September 6, 2009 Report Share Posted September 6, 2009 What do you see happening in 20 years? A few examples being: grading company's........technology getting better for them. Also do you see less or more third party grading companies counterfeiting........getting worse or technology getting better to help eliminate or reduce the amount toning trends..........or blast white coins. more new collectors coming in vs, older leaving. any other forethought? Keys, will always be keys but lets discuss the basics of coin collecting Thoughts on World Coins..........stronger, weaker, same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobh Posted September 6, 2009 Report Share Posted September 6, 2009 What do you see happening in 20 years?A few examples being: grading company's........technology getting better for them. Also do you see less or more third party grading companies This is a tough one to call ... I live in Europe, where 99% of collectors (IMHO, estimate) do not care about TPG's and the hobby is doing quite well without them. A dealer in Switzerland I sometimes buy from told me that he had a nice uncirculated Morgan dollar in a PCGS holder for sale in his shop. That slab gathered dust for several months, then he decided to crack it out. It sold within the week for a nice price. In the USA, I recently did business with a well-respected and established coin dealer in a large Californian city who no longer submits coins to TPG's for his customers because it just isn't worth it in most cases, and the grading standards are also not what they used to be. Many dealers never used TPG's and won't do so in the future (Jim Elmen of World-Wide Coins in Santa Rosa, for example, is certainly no friend of TPG's). What we are seeing today is an inflation of little grading companies with questionable, to say the least, grading policies. No serious collector honors them, and the coins in their slabs are bought & sold as if they were raw coins. Even PCGS and NGC holders do not carry the authority they once did. I think that with the way things are going, TPG's will remain a mostly US-American phenomenon because there is no incentive for Europeans to drink the cool-aid. If they are still around in 2029, I would expect some kind of consolidation between the top two or three grading companies, or perhaps increasing specialization. counterfeiting........getting worse or technology getting better to help eliminate or reduce the amount Counterfeiting is a big problem when a country the size of China decides to treat it like some kind of national sport. The fact that the technology is getting better is only secondary IMHO. toning trends..........or blast white coins. Toning is a fad IMHO. more new collectors coming in vs, older leaving. I hope that more collectors will join the hobby. With easy access to the internet, there is a wealth of information there as well as a much more accessible auction market than there was 20 years ago. Keys, will always be keys but lets discuss the basics of coin collecting Yeah ... keys will always be getting rarer and rarer. Why? Because more people are collecting them. Thoughts on World Coins..........stronger, weaker, same? I'll pass on this one ... it's basically asked from the perspective of a USA collector. And that is a very small part of the collecting hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottishmoney Posted September 6, 2009 Report Share Posted September 6, 2009 I believe I have shared my thoughts previously about TPG's more than I would care to within the premise of this thread. Toning is a fad, a lot of it is AT and will be recognised as having destroyed collectable coins much like coin collectors that lacquered coinage in the 19th century etc. I like them white, blast white like the day they were minted. I would like to think that the ANA was representative of American collectors, but rather, I believe they are completely out of touch - so you cannot expect any sorts of support for the promotion of the hobby from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Art Posted September 6, 2009 Report Share Posted September 6, 2009 grading company's........technology getting better for them. The advances in technology in the coming years will have a major impact on tpgs. I can easily see three dimensional scanning automating many of the processes that are manual today. Of course a stricter more uniform standard of grades will evolve as part of this. The same scanning technologies will aid in counterfeit detection and marking. Also do you see less or more third party grading companies I think the major companies will still be the majors. NGC, PCGS and ANACs will still be around and will have used technology to remove much of the "art" of grading. I also believe that the use of laser technology will enable the Mint to produce almost perfect coins on every strike. counterfeiting........getting worse or technology getting better to help eliminate or reduce the amount This like other crimes will be with us forever. As technology advances to identify counterfeits, technology will aid in the production of near perfect counterfeits either from dies or from direct engraving. toning trends..........or blast white coins. Some toning is quite attractive but overall toning is a fad. Many coins that I see selling for a premium as toned are just butt ugly coins suffering from tarnish. The AT coins will be far more easily identified and rejected by the majority of collectors. more new collectors coming in vs, older leaving. There are a lot of "new" collectors. Many of these are folks in their middle years who had an interest when they were young and now have the financial capabilities to create a nice collection. I hope that this trend continues as well as a strong resurgence of YN's through local clubs, scouts, ANA and such. any other forethought? I think we will see a partnering between the US Mint and the major tpgs creating direct sales from the mint of slabbed/graded coins and sets. Keys, will always be keys but lets discuss the basics of coin collecting Keys will remain as such and many of the coins thought of today as semi-key will be moved into the key catagory because of increased demand. I also think that we will see more and more tpg activity in lower grade coins that are not key/semi-key as more collectors want to participate in the online catalogs/displays provided by the Registry Sets. Thoughts on World Coins..........stronger, weaker, same? As the Euro continues its path to "sameness" demand will increase for the pre-Euro coins and the Euro commemorative coins. The Internet has created an international community of collectors and that will generate greater interest in collections from countries other than one's homeland. I personally like this trend. I think that things like ebay enable and will continue to enable easy access to coins from the world over. Overall I forsee a very bright future for this hobby and for businesses that are savy enough to realize that keeping a strong presence and expanding to match collectors' needs and wants will generate success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Art Posted September 6, 2009 Report Share Posted September 6, 2009 In addition to the above I see a strong movement into older coins -- hammered coins and ancients. The internet has made reference material on these available and affordable to the average collector. A great plus for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottishmoney Posted September 6, 2009 Report Share Posted September 6, 2009 In addition to the above I see a strong movement into older coins -- hammered coins and ancients. The internet has made reference material on these available and affordable to the average collector. A great plus for all of us. No No No, stay away from Hammereds and Ancients, those are exclusive domains of mine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NumisMattic2200 Posted September 8, 2009 Report Share Posted September 8, 2009 What do you see happening in 20 years?A few examples being: grading company's........technology getting better for them. Also do you see less or more third party grading companies counterfeiting........getting worse or technology getting better to help eliminate or reduce the amount toning trends..........or blast white coins. more new collectors coming in vs, older leaving. any other forethought? Keys, will always be keys but lets discuss the basics of coin collecting Thoughts on World Coins..........stronger, weaker, same? Many more collectors, coins available today becoming scarce, Celtic coins worth fortune, I am a millionaire!... Lots of fakes but possible to detect with new scanners being cheap and every collector has one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobh Posted September 8, 2009 Report Share Posted September 8, 2009 Lots of fakes but possible to detect with new scanners being cheap and every collector has one. Yeah, unless they make the scanners in China (i.e., also fake...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottishmoney Posted September 8, 2009 Report Share Posted September 8, 2009 Yeah, unless they make the scanners in China (i.e., also fake...) Yep, had to check it, but my scanner is "Product of China" though in a HP nameplate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YeOldeCollector Posted September 8, 2009 Report Share Posted September 8, 2009 No No No, stay away from Hammereds and Ancients, those are exclusive domains of mine! Oi!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finn235 Posted September 9, 2009 Report Share Posted September 9, 2009 Honestly, I think that a great many collectors will look upon this age of coin collecting with disgust. I'm glad that I'm not trying to keep up with all 156 million different commemorative Euro coins, but you're looking at about 110 coins if you just want to collect all the statehood and territorial quarters, and now they've pretty much given the federal park system quarters the go-ahead for the next 10 years. I really enjoyed my year-long project of hunting down all 104 memorial cent business strikes to complete my '59-'08 collection. When I quit my job as a cashier, I don't think I will be trying to collect whatever hairbrained comemoratives they manage to come up with for the next decade. Few of them have good designs, and even fewer are rare enough to even consider collecting. Personally, I think the US is long overdue for a major overhaul in its coin designs, like we had for the first 30 years of the 20th century. I think that our dead presidents are getting tired of sitting on the same coin for 60-100 years. Where's my Taft quarter and my Fillmore dime? The only modern coins I could see being truly valuable are the '03-'08 Sacs and the ''09 nickels and dimes, on account of their remarkably low mintage. As for older coins, I would venture to guess that the market will remain the same as ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NumisMattic2200 Posted September 9, 2009 Report Share Posted September 9, 2009 Oi!! Actually, leave off the Celts though - with fewer than 1,000 dedicated collectors worldwide they could shoot up in value ssshhh though, it's a secret... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASUtodd Posted September 9, 2009 Report Share Posted September 9, 2009 What do you see happening in 20 years?A few examples being: grading company's........technology getting better for them. Also do you see less or more third party grading companies counterfeiting........getting worse or technology getting better to help eliminate or reduce the amount toning trends..........or blast white coins. more new collectors coming in vs, older leaving. any other forethought? Keys, will always be keys but lets discuss the basics of coin collecting Thoughts on World Coins..........stronger, weaker, same? I see the world coin market catching up with the US coin market, as far as values.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottO Posted September 10, 2009 Report Share Posted September 10, 2009 hopefully more exposure for variaties... 1858 small date farthing was missed by Peck and as such isn't listed in some books.. as a reult the value of this 300 odd (estimated existance) coin is the same as 100-200k mintage pieces... or will sell for the price of the large date (£5-7). as for world coins... euro the price of anything in the euro zone is insane, that and collecting euros is meh russian market is still good, perhaps the newer nations coins will become more desirable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mmarotta Posted September 11, 2009 Report Share Posted September 11, 2009 What do you see happening in 20 years? A few examples being: grading company's (sic) ... counterfeiting... toning ... new collectors ... any other forethought? World Coins... When he was an editor at Krause, ANA President Cliff Mishler used to give a talk on the Future of the Hobby based on his experience over a lifetime. One trend is differentiation. We used to not care about Mint marks. Errors were not pursued. Grading (when it occurred at all) was limited to four general adjectives. Even "US versus World" is a new distinction. Moreover, 20 years is a short time frame. If you find old Coin World or Numismatic News issues from 1989, you will see not much difference, if any, to the modern markets, including arguments about toning, third party grading, and the alarming new influx of counterfeits. We always want more new collectors because we want more buyers pursuing our offerings. Everyone banks on children. We want more young people to give up fripperies like be-bop, jalopies and pinball and become serious collectors like us. Perhaps the only real new trend is the slow realization that the future of the hobby depends on mature collectors (old people) who have leisure, income and education enough to enjoy it. At the turn of the Millennium, some (me, too) suggested that with the Internet, we might see fewer coin shows and smaller conventions. I also suggested the opposite: more and bigger shows running longer. The same predictions were made about coin stores. Online auctions were suggested as the end of bricks and mortar. However, it seems that a trusted local ANA member is a valuable asset to the collectors in a town or city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
numismatic nut Posted September 12, 2009 Report Share Posted September 12, 2009 What do you see happening in 20 years? I see growth in the next two decades. grading company's........technology getting better for them. I think that the TPG's will try to use scanners, but it won't work too well. Also do you see less or more third party grading companies Less! They are only good for making shure a coin is real, nothing more. counterfeiting........getting worse or technology getting better to help eliminate or reduce the amount It's all a rat race. Both sides are going to pull ahead, but they will tie. toning trends..........or blast white coins. Toning will have it die hard fans, and will fade. However, I think it won't dissappear. more new collectors coming in vs, older leaving. I think that input/output of the hobby will be the same. any other forethought? I think that the gap between beginner/intermediate/advanced numismatists will widen. This numismatic enviroment will seperate the boys from the men. Thoughts on World Coins..........stronger, weaker, same? I think they will be stronger, but so will the rest of the market. I think that world coins will appeal more to YN's, because of the low cost of collecting them and because YN's will be more tech savvy and look up coins online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gxseries Posted September 12, 2009 Report Share Posted September 12, 2009 This business will not die down any time soon as far as I see. The biggest challenge right now is how do we deal with counterfeit coins. Perhaps this is the single overwhemling factor of why coin shows still exist - buyers will want to be assured that they are getting the real deal and sellers don't wish to get stung by frauds. The internet has single handedly changed the whole scope of how we collect coins. Foreign coins that used to be difficult to find can be soon ordered over the internet. Prices fluctuate on various news or rumors which affect demand. Sometimes you can never know where coin supplies were shipped and they can appear out from the blue. For instance, early Soviet mint sets were pretty much marketed overseas and hence were almost scarce within the country. Most of the 1965, 66, 70-72 sources come from the US or European market which the Russians buy at whatever price they can afford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
just carl Posted September 12, 2009 Report Share Posted September 12, 2009 I believe that this hobby in 20 years will join the Beanie Babies, Hot Wheel cars, Baseball/Football cards and all the rest of the colletor type hobbies that is killed by overkill. Just way to many products being produced and that is what usually kills such hobbies. There are varieties and commemoratives of almost anything and everything. Just to many of anything distroys such collector hobbies. I remember when my Son was into those sports cards and kept telling me how much they are worth. Then the manufacturers came out with millions of those and my Son ended up just giving his entire collection to some other little kids. This is the future of coins too. As the market is flooded with copies, fakes, couterfeits, extenive commemoratives, all kinds of miscellaneous coins and tokens, the hobby will slowly drindle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ætheling Posted September 12, 2009 Report Share Posted September 12, 2009 Honestly, I think that a great many collectors will look upon this age of coin collecting with disgust. Nevermind about the collectors of the future, I'm a collector of the present who views this commercialisation of the hobby with utter disgust. Although I haven't generally aired my views for many a year, the old timers on the board will remember my many discussions (also definable as rants) on the board about this very subject. Coin collecting has joined the world of stamps where the mints main concerns are now to produce saleable goods with artificial mintages to hype the rarity of new issues and turn over the maximum of profit, where the actual issue of stamps/coins for currency use is merely a secondary concern, if not an annual inconvienience. The question might be, do commemoratives have their place in the hobby? In my opinion, yes they do. When they are commemorating great events or great people that have made a difference. Sadly these days it's not that motive that is behind most commemorative issues it is simply 'how much cash can we make from this?' Twenty years ago it used to be 25th, 50th, 100th year anniversaries since an event, birth or death that were the subjects of the one off every year or every five year commemorative. These days it's four commemoratives a year celebrating, 10th, 15th, 20th, 25th, 43rd, 108th anniversaries of events, births, deaths, sports events, non-descript political agreements. The commems of tomorrow will be about commemorating the 76th anniversary of a previously forgettable and pointless commemorative coin being struck about the sky being blue. Perhaps I'm jaded? Well I feel that the numismatic hobby is being sold down the road, like many other things have been during the last two decades and I think in the long run it will do more damage to the hobby than good. Here endeth the rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedeadpoint Posted September 13, 2009 Report Share Posted September 13, 2009 This may be a topic for another thread, but how many US collectors today purchase a coin from the US mint every year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finn235 Posted September 13, 2009 Report Share Posted September 13, 2009 The question might be, do commemoratives have their place in the hobby? In my opinion, yes they do. When they are commemorating great events or great people that have made a difference. Sadly these days it's not that motive that is behind most commemorative issues it is simply 'how much cash can we make from this?' Twenty years ago it used to be 25th, 50th, 100th year anniversaries since an event, birth or death that were the subjects of the one off every year or every five year commemorative. These days it's four commemoratives a year celebrating, 10th, 15th, 20th, 25th, 43rd, 108th anniversaries of events, births, deaths, sports events, non-descript political agreements. The commems of tomorrow will be about commemorating the 76th anniversary of a previously forgettable and pointless commemorative coin being struck about the sky being blue. I couldn't agree with you more here. I'm suddenly reminded of the Canadian "Victory Nickel." Sixty years of "peace" since the end of WWII? Give me a break. I'll take all the commemoratives I can reasonably get my hands on, but I won't go out of my way to buy these coins which don't even look that good in my opinion. Don't even get me started on the Euro commemorative coins. It gives me a headache just to imagine getting started on that collection. I will probably make a meager attempt to collect the Presidential dollars, and I'll snag some of the park quarters if I happen across any rare ones. As for the rest, I'm probably going to hoard scarce coins from circulation wherever they come up, and then just sit on them for a good long while until I can pass them down to my kids and grandkids. I can only imagine the look on the young numismatist's face when I give him an entire jar full of the old copper Memorial pennies to start his collection off. As they get more into the hobby, then I'll part with some of my rarer coins. Now that the 50 state quarter program is over and done with, I would venture to guess that a great many people will lose all interest in coins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedeadpoint Posted September 13, 2009 Report Share Posted September 13, 2009 Now that the 50 state quarter program is over and done with, I would venture to guess that a great many people will lose all interest in coins. Didn't they announce the State Parks program this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Art Posted September 13, 2009 Report Share Posted September 13, 2009 Didn't they announce the State Parks program this week? They posted the 2010 coins and a quick bit of info on the 5 ouncers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippiebrian Posted September 28, 2009 Report Share Posted September 28, 2009 I think tgp's are here to stay, if for no other reason than the proliferation of fakes into the market from China via feepay. As far as natural toning, I believe it may be a trend, however toning will always be appreciated as proof that a coin hasn't been dipped or cleaned. I too am frustrated with the amount of modern commerqative coins, as well as the quarter programs (although as a new coin collecting addict, I feel a need to collect them all from pocket change) and the presidential dollars (come on, do we need these AND sac's?). They are making these at such high mintages that they will never be worth much over face. There eill always be a market for classic, regular circulated (or designed for circulation) coins however. I think that there will be more defined keys, espescially as semi-keys get saved more and more. I think the future of this hobby is mostly in people like me, who break into the hobby at 47 with the money to collect seriously. Young people will always be important, of course, but mainly for getting interested in the hobby collecting lower value coins as a stepping stone. I do see a future for this hobby, but maybe different than it has been. Just like in the past, the investors will disappear, and this will make coins more affordable for those of us who truly love them. Hopefully more people will have the same attitude with coins that I have, which is not necessarily worrying about what they may be worth at some future time, but what they are worth to me! Lets face it, when my daughter inherits my collection, she'll get at least face for everything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henare Posted September 29, 2009 Report Share Posted September 29, 2009 i'm not sure. i think the nclt golden goose may or may not die off. if it doesn't it will almost certainly continue to separate itself off into its own little world like collectable plates and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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