I know, we don't collection coins for any $ return,,, but that aside and if you had to pick........
Using the 2006 redbook prices as a baseline,
What coin would you pick to present the greatest return on your dollar YOY to the price that will be listed in the 2007 redbook?
I guess we can opt by grade also..... maybe a Good pick, EF pick and MS63 pick.
I don't track the weekly/monthly/etc. trends and will guess without that advantage....
1921p walker across all three grades.
Full Version: Coin market play
The greatest returns?
I'd have to say 1921 WLH, 1909-S VDB, and 1893-S Morgan. Can't say which will be the most but if I had to bet.....the Morgan through all three.
I've already had some nice increases in coins purchased in the past.
I'd have to say 1921 WLH, 1909-S VDB, and 1893-S Morgan. Can't say which will be the most but if I had to bet.....the Morgan through all three.
I've already had some nice increases in coins purchased in the past.
Gold hitting $1000 an ounce notwithstanding,
Recent rises from issue on sheer percentages per eBay:
The '04 UNC mint set and Westward nickel sets have tripled.
The recent '05 Marine Corps Comm proof has doubled.
'05 American Legacy Proof Set and '99 Silver Proof Set
Worst Cases should also be noted like the '03 First Flight Comm.
are almost below issue.
There are many, many more but those recent issues come to mind.
Recent rises from issue on sheer percentages per eBay:
The '04 UNC mint set and Westward nickel sets have tripled.
The recent '05 Marine Corps Comm proof has doubled.
'05 American Legacy Proof Set and '99 Silver Proof Set
Worst Cases should also be noted like the '03 First Flight Comm.
are almost below issue.
There are many, many more but those recent issues come to mind.
I have no idea but whenever anyone asks about rising values, I always say key and semi key dates in popular series. The keys for Lincolns, Mercs, Buffs, Walkers, Morgans. Stuff like that.
QUOTE(Stujoe @ Feb 15 2006, 08:37 PM)
I have no idea but whenever anyone asks about rising values, I always say key and semi key dates in popular series. The keys for Lincolns, Mercs, Buffs, Walkers, Morgans. Stuff like that.
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I prefer the "key-but-not-treated-key" coins for best increase in value.
For example, a couple of years ago you could pick up VG 1914 Barber halves for $40, or twice the price of the common ones, even though there was 124,230 (non-proof) ones minted. Now, a VG is $150+.
I'm expecting prices to double or triple in the next few years for the 1908-S and 1909-S IHC (with 1877 going up, but not doubling).
I'm expecting prices to increase in low-to-mid grade 30's and silver Jeffs.
I'm expecting ALL of the low-price Bust coinage with under 1.5M mintage to double in the next few years.
But that's just my take.
John
'who did well with the 1914 half speculation a couple of years ago'
There are some coins that have low mintages yet are only a small percentage more then a "common" coins. Those will certainly be going higher as more and more collectors start collecting.
Gold hitting $1000.....I can see that happening. I'd be surprised if it didn't hit $600 by summer.
Gold hitting $1000.....I can see that happening. I'd be surprised if it didn't hit $600 by summer.
QUOTE(NetJohn @ Feb 15 2006, 09:57 PM)
I prefer the "key-but-not-treated-key" coins for best increase in value.
For example, a couple of years ago you could pick up VG 1914 Barber halves for $40, or twice the price of the common ones, even though there was 124,230 (non-proof) ones minted. Now, a VG is $150+.
I'm expecting prices to double or triple in the next few years for the 1908-S and 1909-S IHC (with 1877 going up, but not doubling).
I'm expecting prices to increase in low-to-mid grade 30's and silver Jeffs.
I'm expecting ALL of the low-price Bust coinage with under 1.5M mintage to double in the next few years.
But that's just my take.
John
'who did well with the 1914 half speculation a couple of years ago'
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For example, a couple of years ago you could pick up VG 1914 Barber halves for $40, or twice the price of the common ones, even though there was 124,230 (non-proof) ones minted. Now, a VG is $150+.
I'm expecting prices to double or triple in the next few years for the 1908-S and 1909-S IHC (with 1877 going up, but not doubling).
I'm expecting prices to increase in low-to-mid grade 30's and silver Jeffs.
I'm expecting ALL of the low-price Bust coinage with under 1.5M mintage to double in the next few years.
But that's just my take.
John
'who did well with the 1914 half speculation a couple of years ago'
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I agree with John. The same could be said for the 1912-S liberty nickel in F-VF.
My sleeper picks for 2007.....1921-D Merc or 1914-S Quarter
I like this thread, what a fun idea bahabully. It gives me an idea, im gunna sleep on it and unleash it in the morning.
-Bobby
-Bobby
Personally, I think the greatest returns will be on the KEY Saints (which differs from key Saints in that KEY coins are the ones only the super rich and recent lottery winners can afford), these would include the 1927-D, 1921 and 1920-S among others. For something that more of us could afford, I think the 25-S Saint is a very undervalued coin, which can be had in AU for about $4-5K and in a few years I could see that price being double. In other series, key dates are always a good bet, but I also think that nice liberty seated type coins in unc/proof are very overlooked in today's market and could see outsized gains in the coming years.
Rarities, i say 18th century US gold coins are the way forward.
I think everyone is correct on going for "key dates" or "semi-keys" ... but ... you cannot go wrong with a Chain Cent !!! Always will be my first pick in this kind of scenario 
I was thinking today, if gold hit $1000 an ounce, what will platinum hit?
Whoever likes Barber halves, check out the updated PCGS price guide. LOTS of green. 1914 went from $32 to $155 (I know their guide isn't accurate).
QUOTE(NetJohn @ Feb 15 2006, 09:57 PM)
'who did well with the 1914 half speculation a couple of years ago'
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I picked up almost all the barber halves under 1M mintage about 2 years ago, last purchase was the 1914 and 1915 in very solid VG for $40-50 each. I think the guy from Bluemoon coins sold them to me if I remember correctly.... very happy with the coins and the price.
Lots of nice commentary and guidance, however I could only pull 4 somewhat definitive answers from the thread so far:
Burks - 1893S Morgan
Baha - 1921P WLH
Dan - 1912S Nickel (I like this one too)
Jtryka - 1925S Saint
1 regular Coin guys/gals,,, lets stay away from mint sets and proof sets and metals, etc...,,,,we'll pop the 2007 book open when it comes out and measure it's increase across Good, XF and MS63.
Winner gets a set of ginsu steak knives... and bragging rights for an entire fiscal year. Stu should provide unique and distinct icon for winner.
Knowing 28plain's fondness of the state quarters, I'll go ahead and put him down for the Wisconsin Quarter down leaf variety/error. 28?
Cheers.
Burks - 1893S Morgan
Baha - 1921P WLH
Dan - 1912S Nickel (I like this one too)
Jtryka - 1925S Saint
1 regular Coin guys/gals,,, lets stay away from mint sets and proof sets and metals, etc...,,,,we'll pop the 2007 book open when it comes out and measure it's increase across Good, XF and MS63.
Winner gets a set of ginsu steak knives... and bragging rights for an entire fiscal year. Stu should provide unique and distinct icon for winner.
Knowing 28plain's fondness of the state quarters, I'll go ahead and put him down for the Wisconsin Quarter down leaf variety/error. 28?
Cheers.
Gem clad dimes are spectacularly underpriced in the Redbook. They'll
appear to have very high percentage gains when this is corrected.
appear to have very high percentage gains when this is corrected.
Won't meet your EF-MS criteria but interesting anyway...
I'd like to see how much a 1933 $20 gold piece would bring at auction today.
Given the uncertainty surrounding the 10 new examples uncovered, I think it might bring less than it did in 2002.
QUOTE(jtryka @ Feb 17 2006, 01:20 PM)
Given the uncertainty surrounding the 10 new examples uncovered, I think it might bring less than it did in 2002.
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Ah yes. I was assuming those would be labeled as "fake" and destroyed. Now if they certainly are real and the lady is allowed to keep them, I can see the price being lower than 2002.
Has there been a final verdit as to whether they are or are not original 1933's?
Oh yes, they are all quite real, as the mint authenticated each one themselves! If they weren't real they wouldn't be in storage at Ft. Knox right now. They range in grade from low MS all the way up to MS-65 I believe, and the best of the group I believe exceeds the 2002 specimen in overall quality. The question remains as to whether they will be legal to own, or whether they will just be placed on exhibitis by the mint. Ultimately, I believe it will come down to a court battle with these 10 coins just like the former example, and the same lawyer is representing the owner of all 11 coins.
QUOTE(jtryka @ Feb 17 2006, 04:42 PM)
Oh yes, they are all quite real, as the mint authenticated each one themselves! If they weren't real they wouldn't be in storage at Ft. Knox right now.
Ah. I wasn't aware that they were authenticated. I'd like to see the owner win the case, or at least get something out of the deal.
<----Looks dumb now.
QUOTE(Burks @ Feb 17 2006, 04:47 PM)
<----Looks dumb now.
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I wouldn't worry about looking dumb, as there are so many, many aspects of this hobby of which I am blissfully ignorant, though it still doesn't make me dumb. Each day I come here I learn something new, particularly with all the world coin collectors that frequent this site. Oh, and if you want to see me "loo dumb" just get me in a conversation about Morgans or maybe modern coins!
QUOTE(Burks)
Whoever likes Barber halves, check out the updated PCGS price guide. LOTS of green. 1914 went from $32 to $155 (I know their guide isn't accurate).
You know that the price guide is not accurate. Other people know that the price guide is not accurate. You know they know. They know you know. Yet, the price guides exist. In fact, they exist specifically to foster their own mythology.
It would be different if they reported actual sales -- Rome's from Krause is an actual report of actual auction prices --- but the Greysheet specifically says that a price listed does not mean that any such coin is or ever was for sale.
So, this is not so much a guess about the market, as a guess about the Redbook guess of the market.
Which coin would you collect as a series if the series (and coin) actually existed?
QUOTE(bahabully)
... greatest return on your dollar YOY to the price ...
What does YOY mean?
(A few weeks ago, Prairie Home Companion had a "Guy Noire" skit about an English teacher who snapped and took a busload of seniors hostage, in part, because he got essays on The Great Gatsby with IMHO in them.)
Wow,,, more great commentary and guidance, but no new picks? Come on, where's your gaming spirit,,,,, Ginsu Steak Knives are a rare collectors item and can cut a tomato with ease after slicing through a car door....
.... and all you have to do is pick the coin that will present the greatest increase in redbook 'estimated/whatever' value from 2006 to 2007 (Year Over Year - YOY). Earn bragging rights for an entire fiscal year as the established and proven redbook coin market investor winner......... maybe get rights to a unique Avatar too.
By the way, very interesting info regarding the 1933 and 1913,,,, I had no idea.
.... and all you have to do is pick the coin that will present the greatest increase in redbook 'estimated/whatever' value from 2006 to 2007 (Year Over Year - YOY). Earn bragging rights for an entire fiscal year as the established and proven redbook coin market investor winner......... maybe get rights to a unique Avatar too.
By the way, very interesting info regarding the 1933 and 1913,,,, I had no idea.
<----Looks dumb now.
I had an opportunity to sit in a class taught by a published academic statistical author. Actually used his book in a class while in college. He was a wise and personnable old bird..... ".....well you can either sit there with your mouth shut, hide your stupidity and appear smart... or open your mouth and prove your stupidity..." He spoke at will.
I had an opportunity to sit in a class taught by a published academic statistical author. Actually used his book in a class while in college. He was a wise and personnable old bird..... ".....well you can either sit there with your mouth shut, hide your stupidity and appear smart... or open your mouth and prove your stupidity..." He spoke at will.
QUOTE(mmarotta @ Feb 18 2006, 07:04 AM)
You know that the price guide is not accurate. Other people know that the price guide is not accurate. You know they know. They know you know. Yet, the price guides exist. In fact, they exist specifically to foster their own mythology.
It would be different if they reported actual sales -- Rome's from Krause is an actual report of actual auction prices --- but the Greysheet specifically says that a price listed does not mean that any such coin is or ever was for sale.
So, this is not so much a guess about the market, as a guess about the Redbook guess of the market.
Which coin would you collect as a series if the series (and coin) actually existed?
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It would be different if they reported actual sales -- Rome's from Krause is an actual report of actual auction prices --- but the Greysheet specifically says that a price listed does not mean that any such coin is or ever was for sale.
So, this is not so much a guess about the market, as a guess about the Redbook guess of the market.
Which coin would you collect as a series if the series (and coin) actually existed?
[right][snapback]159586[/snapback][/right]
I'm sure their guide plays some kind of role in pricing though. If people see a large increase in their coins price, you know the selling price is going to reflect that. Search "online coin price guide", PCGS is #2. This goes for those collectors who don't have any kind of paper reference. It could be a great guide if they updated it more then once a year.
QUOTE(Burks @ Feb 18 2006, 10:31 AM)
I'm sure their guide plays some kind of role in pricing though. If people see a large increase in their coins price, you know the selling price is going to reflect that. Search "online coin price guide", PCGS is #2. This goes for those collectors who don't have any kind of paper reference. It could be a great guide if they updated it more then once a year.
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That's what can make price guides insidious. PCGS, Greysheet etc. who knows how they got the prices. Are they influenced by those who sell coins? Maybe, maybe not but we'll never know.
Soon enough you'll be able to look at a coin by type, grade, service and see actual results over time. You can allready to a limited degree on Heritage and Ebay. Those real prices are the market, are the guide for the future.
QUOTE(jlueke @ Feb 18 2006, 11:20 AM)
Soon enough you'll be able to look at a coin by type, grade, service and see actual results over time. You can allready to a limited degree on Heritage and Ebay. Those real prices are the market, are the guide for the future.
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I think Ebay and Heritage are the best "price guides" there are. Real people and real time. Not what someone "thinks" a coin is worth 8 months ago. I base a lot of my dealings on current Ebay prices. Which is often below Redbook price. Maybe have overpaid on one coin but it was worth it.
You see descriptions like "PCGS Guide $500" and it sells for maybe $200. Well either someone got a killer deal or someone at PCGS hit the wrong button on the calculator.
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