QUOTE(Doogy @ Feb 7 2006, 03:48 PM)
Looks like gold took a big hit today, although i'm sure it is temporary as gold has seen a big upsurge as of late. comments?
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I've only been investing for ten years. I have learned in that time not to get too excited one way or another when an asset class takes a dive or shoots the moon. It is far too easy to lose money by trying to guess what a result this day or that day means.
Gold has typically been uncorrelated with other assets and thus has a place in a well-diversified portfolio should one subscribe to "modern portfolio theory". I do, for reasons that would take far too long to explain.
However as of late gold has been behaving a bit differently. the dollar is up, and gold is up. Normally they are inversely correlated -- Buying gold was typically a hedge against a falling dollar. Taken to its extreme, gold has been a hedge against currency failure.
Some folks have been predicting for years a sea change in the gold market due to rising demand for non-monetary uses for gold. Perhaps this is what we're seeing. The commodities market has awakened after years of doldrums allegedly due to the growing economies of china, india, the former warsaw pact, and other emerging markets.
The gold market may also be "mean reverting" -- after 20 years of uncharacteristically lousy returns, it is recovering from being dumped as a monetary standard and the speculation of the late 70s/early 80s.