Pardon me, I must be taking some kind of strong medication at the moment

Back to the question of 1849, if you realized, 1849 is the very year the design was changed completely. If you looked at the rarity of them, most of them are either uncommon, or probably VERY RARE in Uzedenikov. Most coins before that time were either struck in Sestroretsk, Ekaterinburg, and St. Petersburg, but in the last few years were puzzling. From 1845-1847, most coins were struck in Sestroretsk and in 1848, in Warsaw.
It seemed that Russia wanted the Warsaw mint to mint all of the copper coins while St. Petersburg mint the silver and gold coins. But my assumption is that the dies must have arrived late in Warsaw, and some major hiccups must have occured, i.e. the design of the dies were only prepared late and St Petersburg must have taken emergency measures of striking examples of such coins.
This early SPB series is said to be extremely rare simply as I guess, emergency issues as SPB only took full control of minting copper coins only in 1867. Who knows if they are minted in 1849 or so. Technically speaking, if the coin was struck one year later, it IS considered as novodel. Imagine this, if the dies were prepared only in December, and the striking continued on till the end of January, half of the batch alone are considered to be novodels! Cruel as it seems, but that's the broad defination of what a novodel can be.
BUT this is what I am speculating. What you have are really pretty examples, so if you are going to purchase any, regardless if they are to be labelled as novodels or not, be prepared to pay top dollars!

The 1840 examples are relatively easy as it seems all denominations without a mintmark are considered as novodels.